(hope we’ve done a bit in demanding for a legislative agenda and peaceful and honest elections, can i talk horserace it’s less than 15 hours before the elections.) The surveys show 6-4-2 for GO. TU however says “command votes” and machinery will carry the day for them 12-0. By that, they mean the following spread of forces (source: Inquirer, May 10, 2007): 70% to 80% TU mayoralty — unopposedbroken down as follows:53 Lakas mun. mayoralty — Maguindanao5 Lakas mayoralty — CAR23 Lakas mayoralty —Reg. 18 — Reg. 23 — Reg. 311 — Reg. 43 — Reg. 528 — Reg. 624 — Reg. 935 — Reg. 104 — Reg. 1115 — Reg. 1224 — Muslim Min.12 — Caragaand 24 city mayors. (that’s 314 unopposed Lakas mayoralty races of 1,502 so i’m missing 737 mayors in the list, i’m guessing they’re from Kampi and allied groups.) The spread, according to the Institute for Popular Democracy, is as follows: Lakas-CMD and Kampi control the following: 77 governors194 congressmen115 city mayors1,200 municial mayors. (that is, GO fielded mayoralty candidates in only 20% to 30% of cities and municipalities). Let’s say these numbers are correct. Does it mean that those numbers
The TU spokesperson on ANC’s “Crossroads” last Friday said “95% of winning local candidates nationwide are TU while 70% of TU local candidates nationwide are unopposed.” Asked how that works for the senatorial, he stressed, “The machinery is strong and efficient; the President’s power to hold the mayors and governors to their word will win the local and national elections for us.”
“…hold them to their word…” With what? Money? In the last 48 hours before the elections, people will run away with your money; it is self-interest that rules in the last 48 hours. You can keep releasing tranches but the local candidates will carry those senatorial candidates that can carry them. In other words, they will not carry senatorial candidates that will weigh them down. Of course. They’d want those senatoriables who would bring them votes, too, in exchange for local support; it’s called horsetrading, a practice older than your great great grandparents it’s commonplace. In order to “hold them to their word” you need to have your own people doing the massive vote-buying in the district -level rather than leaving the tranches with the mayors. “…hold them to their word…” With what? 2010? Gloria’s not allowed to run in 2010, it’s the top two and the head of the Wednesday Group who can use 2010 to broker anything. You’ll promise them she’ll rule beyond 2010. Now, that’s a plan. It’s iffy though. It assumes no great obstacles to cha-cha or authoritarianism. The “sweep” votes (from the phrase/ concept “sweeping propaganda”; the “sweep” votes are those reached and convinced through different kinds of media content and not thru organizational discipline; in other words, those who are unorganized); those large numbers of “sweep” votes will go to the top 7 or 8 (that’s why they keep turning up in surveys), so that’s a 5-1-1 for GO or a 6-1-1 for GO, if votes are counted. Can the “command votes”, or those who will literally copy the sample ballots that the mayors, governors, congressmen, will give them; and those religious organizations who vote as a block; and those big partylist organizations (their members); can those (“command votes”) even-out the large numbers of “sweep” votes that will go to GO?But those “command votes” will also go mixed slate, won’t they? (6-4-2; at best 6-5-1, but which of the bottom 5) Even the mayors, governors, congressmen: a 12-0 is a millstone around their necks, they don’t want to be dragged down, and it’s difficult to resist the top two, who can broker 2010 or are brokering for 2010, the top 6 or 7 are perceived to be the future (immediate future), future presidents (who will be dividing up the “opposition” a little after May 14, 2007 but that’s another story). So…the command votes will not even-out the “sweep” votes. But because they will also carry the TU top 5 or top 6 (Recto-Zubiri-bottom Numbers 11, 12, 13, 15), and because of the narrow gaps
the “command votes” can determine the ranking of the bottom 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10.
And so, it has come to this. Mike Defensor, brilliant, dazzling, legendary, is paying the price that Gloria should be paying.
But will PGMA allow their fair-haired boy to lose? She had probably thought, he is my most reliable ally, i need him there; and so “the President will use her power to hold them (mayors and governors) to their word”. Mike Defensor has to climb over Numbers 14, 13, and 12. He can do that by shopping votes from Number 14 (Koko Pimentel) (it’s horrible, i know; maybe he won’t do it himself ). But because Numbers 13 and 12 are TU, if they are going to be carried by the “command votes”, their numbers will rise, too, so Number 15 has to shop three times more votes from a GO candidate/ independent candidate for every one vote Numbers 12 and 13 get, so he can climb over them. Shopping votes from GO candidates/ independent candidates would require fabrication of ER’s and you need to shop 3 times more to climb over.
It would be 3 times easier to ask the “command votes” to go his way but not for Numbers 12 and 13 so he can climb over them. That’s perfectly “legal”; they’re command votes.
(To those who cannot picture this in their heads and ask out aloud, why will you junk your coalition-mates, that doesn’t make sense, etc., here’s how it works: If Joker, Tito Sotto, and Mike get 3 votes each from Territory A, Territory B, and Territory C, Mike will still be Number 15 (or 14). But if Joker and Tito Sotto get 0 votes each from Territory A, Territory B, and Territory C and Mike gets those command votes (bahala na sila kung sino isasama nila basta hindi 12 at 13), he will be getting 3 votes each from Territory A, Territory B, Territory C, so he climbs over Numbers 13 and 12 without having to shop 3 times more votes from a GO candidate or independent candidate, which requires pre-fabricated ER’s (not that, that would not happen); besides, it would be perfectly legal “junking”, it’s just numbers, and you can’t argue with numbers.
(Pre-fabricated ER’s are an entirely different game. They wipe out even the “sweep” votes. All those number-crunching exercises are useless when pre-fabricated ER’s are factored in; everything becomes moot even before they start to happen.)
But the Vice President has Joker’s back. The Wednesday Group and other allies has his back; those who are perceived future Senate president, future majority floor leader, future Vice President, future President, have his back. PGMA stands to lose her most important allies; allies she needs to tide over until 2010. On the other hand, if she doesn’t junk, she has to shop votes three times more from a GO candidate or an independent candidate, which would require pre-fabricated ER’s; and if she’s going to go in that direction, shop for votes 3 times more for one TU candidate she might as well do it for the 8 TU candidates (because you’re already there!). In case of massive cheating, will there be a revolt? Or just a slow breaking-away that she’s calculating she can contain? (Mike is almost symbolic and he’s close enough to be within the 12; you think they’d let go of him?) “My horse, my horse, my kingdom for a horse!”
(sorry Mike; knight naman siguro si Mike. In chess, the knight is in the shape of a horse: it jumps over bishops and pawns in opening. Good luck).