Posted at 11:31am

tap the play arrow (if on mobile, click “Listen in browser”) on the soundcloud pod below …and may the odds be in your favor

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Guide for Reporters: Reporting the DOH Data based on the DOH-admitted backlog of 5-7 days: Each figure reported daily is actually 7 days old, e.g., the number of 1,418 infected dated March 29 should be reported as: “due to backlog, this number is based on tests of April 22, 2020”
          DOH Secretary Duque revealed in an interview by DZBB’s Igan and Ali Sotto an hour ago that the DOH figures on number of confirmed cases of people infected being released everyday has a backlog of 5 to 7 days due to the length of time that the test results could be finalized because of the surge in the number of tests conducted.

         This means that while the entire test and processing itself takes 24- 48 hours, the long line of samples makes the releasing of test results delayed by about 5 to 7 days. See explanation at:
https://news.abs-cbn.com/news/03/27/20/doh-says-covid-19-testing-now-takes-5-to-7-days-ritm-to-address-backlog-soon

       In other words, the figures on number of cases of people infected are from tests conducted 5 to 7 days ago.

       In other words, they’re not real-time.

       Because of the absence of real-time data, extrapolations are being made by the best mathematicians in this country based on international epidemiological modelling standards.

         The simplest extrapolation is based on the rate of increase, e.g., our numbers are doubling every three days.

       Based on this simplest extrapolation, media practitioners out there — journalists, reporters, news anchors, editors and directors included – can do the math, right? Because you have a bigger platform, let’s help in disseminating the explainer.

     Why is this important?

      Because it is upon the big data that the decision on whether to lift the quarantine would depend.

      Wrong data means wrong decision, many will die.

      (Some of you will say that the extrapolation is very speculative but there is no other data available, and according to the mathematicians, it is based on internationally accepted epidemiological modelling standards.).

        So, here it is:

       If it’s doubling every three days …

       and the present data is from seven days ago…

        the modelling study made by some mathematicians …

          as laymanized by blog admin…

      is as follows (this is my laymanization, any mistake is mine alone)

March 22: 1,418 Number of people infected based on 5-7 days backlog

March 25: 2,836 Number of people infected based on modelling study of 100% increase every 3 days

March 28: 5,672 Number of people infected based on modelling study of 100% increase every 3 days

Today, March 30: 9,452 Number of people infected based on modelling study of 100% increase every 3 days

March 31: 11,344 Number of people infected based on modelling study of 100% increase every 3 days

      In other words, with the backlog of 5 to 7 days and based on the rate of increase at 100% every three days, the figure that comes closer to reality on the number of people infected as of today March 30 is closer to 9,452 than 1,418, because 1,418 is seven days old and the number is doubling every three days.

     In other words, as of today, unbeknownst to us and unbeknownst to the people infected themselves, there are most likely 8,034 people walking around infected but not tested and therefore undiagnosed.

      We’d like to find them so they can be treated and be given a comfortable room so they would not infect more people. That’s how to race with the virus.

      This shows the logic behind improving the capacity to test in order to accomplish massive and focused testing or, as many netizens hashtag it, #MassTestingNowPH (mass testing is not testing en masse but massive testing).

      The DOH Secretary has promised to release the real-time figures in a few days.

       As for presenting a contextualized discussion of the DOH figures, news editors and directors are faced with the question: Do we want people to know, or not know?

          That problem is not a mathematical question.

Posted at 2:05 pm March 29

tap the play arrow (if on mobile device, click “Listen in browser”) on the soundcloud pod below to play the theme dedicated to all our healthworkers (credits: as stated and embedded in the files) 

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        URGENT For Health Usec Vergeire: Here is the URGENT legal research & staffwork to ask IATF thru, CabSec Nograles to approve updating the protocol for volunteer healthworkers’ allowance from Php500 to P1,500 to comply with legal standards set by SC on healthworkers’ compensation in a recent SC decision

               “Even heroes have the right to bleed…”
                                -Five for Fighting

              With any luck, the tropical hot weather sunlight, heavy humidity, tons of free running water and soap, delivery of enough food packs and supplies to the poorest sectors, successful quarantining, social distancing, protection for all healthworkers, and focused and massive testing, will cut in half the spread of Covid19  in the next 14 days (factors cited in a non-peer-reviewed empirical study of an expert in Wuhan, China).

        HOWEVER, the IATF, the DOH, medical and epidemiological experts, people’s organizations, and many more, being rational beings, are preparing calmly for the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario requires at the very least,  doubling the number of healthworkers attending to Covid19 patients, contact-tracing, and testing PUIs and PUMs.

         In this regard, the DOH has publicly called for volunteer healthworkers, offering a package that included a daily P500 allowance. This was met with anger and hostility from medical practitioners and ordinary citizens, who asked for more transparency on the disbursement of health funds for Covid19, i.e., raised questions on where the money is going and why are healthworkers being treated this way. DOH Usec Ma. Rosario Vergeire has apologized for the announcement with the explanation that the allowance was based on a protocol.

           She promised to work harder in solving the problem and justified the amount by saying that the supplemental budget has been approved which allocated the biggest slice for the purchase of more PPEs, or personal protective equipment, for healthworkers.

         More PPEs : Good! Very good —  You would find however that having doctors, nurses, and healthworkers inside the HazMat suits works better. 

        URGENT. Embedded below, in green font, for use of the Department of Health, is the required legal research and staffwork so that the DOH can ask the IATF to approve updating the protocol for volunteer healthworkers’ allowance from Php500 to P1,500 to comply with legal standards set by SC on healthworkers’ compensation in a recent SC decision. Hope this is useful.

MEMO 
For: The IATF thru Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles,
From: Health Undersecretary Ma. Rosario Vergeire
Subject: Urgent requirement to double the number of health workers and to comply with the legal standards on health workers daily allowance for their sustenance

      Dear IATF Director and Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles,

       Re. Urgent requirement to double the number of health workers and to comply with the legal standards on health workers daily allowance for their sustenance
– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – 

          In line with the Covid19 mathematical modelling studies made by our medical and epidemiological experts, we need to double the number of health workers functioning from the number _______ to _________ by April __, 2020, in order to meet the needs of an expected _______  (number of people) that would require treatment and hospitalization. We have moved in this direction by attempting to recruit more volunteer healthworkers by posting a call volunteer doctors, nurses, and hospital staff. However, within a few hours of posting our call for more volunteers, we were met with hostility from medical practitioners and netizens who have correctly pointed out that the P500 protocol allowance per day for the volunteers is almost sub-human.

          We agree, and I have publicly apologized for it. The protocol has not been updated and is certainly outdated. Not only is it sub-human, it is also not at par with the legal standards on the salary of nurses in the public sector.

           Based on research of our legal team, we found out that the legal standard for the salary of nurses in the public sector has been set by the Supreme Court in the case “Ang Nars Partylist vs. Executive Secretary” GR No. 215746, Oct. 8, 2019 at
http://sc.judiciary.gov.ph/8295/

where the Supreme Court held that the salaries of government nurses should be P33,279 a month.

          While the volunteers that would be recruited are not going to be regular employees, their allowance should be at least at par with legal standards considering the risk and hazard that they are exposed to. Based on this legal standard, we need to update our protocol at this time and raise said allowance from P500 a day to P1,500 a day in order that our volunteer healthworkers can meet the daily required sustenance to keep themselves healthy and functioning to meet the task that would be assigned to them and for us to save more lives.

           Based on this updated protocol, following is the computation of the amount we would need for the sustenance of _____ (number) healthworkers in ____ shifts for the period April ___ to April ____, 2020

     (Embed computation here).

          We request your approval within the next 24 hours.

            Kindly treat the matter with utmost urgency.

                                                                                              Yours truly,
   Health Undersecretary Ma. Rosario Vergeire

 ♣♣♣       ♣♣♣    ♣♣♣

         Hope this draft, which can be further substantiated, is useful. Sana po ay patuloy kaming nakakatulong kahit kaunti sa pamamagitan nito.

     Pangalagaan ang lahat ng frontliners!

     Marami pong salamat. -marichu