Dedicated to the millennials (unfairly being blamed or praised for the ratings of certain candidates, but here are the stats, see numbers and discussion below):
Based on Comelec data as of January 2016: Almost half of the 54.36 million registered voters in the country are below 35 years old, or the so-called millennials.
That is, 24.73 million voters of the 54.36 million registered voters are aged 17 to 34 years old.
Here is the breakdown:
3,043,411 voters are 17 to 19 years old
7,983,167 voters are 20-24 years old
7,370,037 voters are 25 to 29 years old
6,333,398 voters are 30 to 34 years old
There is no study that indicates that there is a millennial vote or millennial block vote. Nada.
There is no study that indicates that there is a women’s vote or women voting as a block. Wala. Wala po. It’s fragmented into the four leading candidates with (according to Pulse Asia in March, 2016): Grace Poe getting a small edge of about 2%-4% over the second-placer for women’s votes with the rest evenly divided. That means there is no women’s vote – they do not cluster dramatically around one candidate, but yes, she enjoys a slight edge, but that is still not a block vote. There is no study that indicates that there is a men’s vote or menvoting as a block. It’s fragmented into the four leading candidates with (according to Pulse Asia inMarch 2016) Duterte getting a small edge of 2% to 4% over the second placer for men’s votes with the rest evenly divided, so that means they are not dramatically clustered, not a block vote.
If you look at urban versus rural, one candidate tops the urban vote with a mere 2% over the second placer for urban voters while another candidate tops the rural vote with a mere 2% to 4 % over the second placer for the rural voters.
The only block vote is the Iglesia ni Cristo and that was where the President was yesterday, but there is no study to indicate that they have made or unmade a presidential elections or determined its outcome.
Perish the thought that between now and May 9 or a mere six days, there will be a millennial vote, or a women’s vote, or a men’s vote, or an urban vote, or a rural vote. There’s not enough time.
Are there territorial votes such as a Visayan vote, a solid North, a Mindanao vote, or a Metro Manila vote? Traditionally, the territorial votes were categorized as “opposition country” and “administration votes”; but since after Garci (who delivered landslides 0-versus-100% “victory” and leads from big islands) and during the era of automated elections, apparently no single region or island has delivered landslides to one candidate.
What to do now with six days remaining – since there is no millennial vote, no women’s vote, etc. ?
Between now and May 9, a party has to exert all its efforts to sweeping strokes of propaganda that capture the imagination of the entire nation.
That is: In the next remaining crucial six days, while it is true that you should consolidate your so-called voting blocks, the decisive swing in voters’ preferences will not be determined by the blocks — it will be determined by…. (drum roll please): The level of political consciousness of the electorate. (big words). Eh ganuon talaga, iyun nga yung obvious na hindi nakikita ng mga so-called political analysts.
Here’s one more: Based on the numbers, based on who were leading in the presidential surveys in the last one-and-a-half years, three-fourths of those were not choosing the administration daang matuwid candidate (sorry po, malapit na po ang eleksyon, ito po yung data.)
Here’s one more. Ito ang pag-isipan nyo nang mabuti:
In the next six days, would you be able to change that? i.e., in a mere six days, would you be able to change one-and-a-half years’ trend or data? Pag-isipan mo nang mabuti, hwag ka masyadong matagal mag-isip.
That (whether they would swing in favor of the admin candidate or not) would also be determined by the level of political consciousness and in the next six days, the swing, if any, with less than one week, will adjust only within its level of political consciousness. (barring massive cheating).
The Comelec website ( comelec.gov.ph ) is still down. And with it, the Precinct Finder is also down.
More than 7 million voters in the presidential elections eleven days from now are first-time voters. They’ve never set foot inside a voting precinct.
They turned 18 years old in the period June, 2013 to October, 2015 and registered in that period for the first time. Thankfully there is a precinct-finder, thanklessly it is down. The Comelec chair said that the Comelec website will not be opened because “it is still unsafe” (“Comelec website still down, unsafe –Chairman”GMA News online, Apr. 27).
99.9 per cent of our students in the University are first-time voters. As part of our civic duty, i gave the optional assignment next week that they could use the first 15 minutes of classes to go online and locate their precinct thru the Precinct-Finder of the Comelec website.
A student said it was down, and another student asked, what if it’s down for the entire week, how will we locate our voting precinct? (he’s 18). And i gave a feeble: “your voting precinct is most probably in the schoolhouse nearest where you live…locate the nearest schoolhouse… through…uhmm, by using…google maps…”
And that’s my “WordPress Discovery Challenge: Obstacles” post — Comelec officials were traumatized by the hacking, the Comelec chair said the Comelec website was still unsafe, therefore they have not opened it, there is no Precinct-Finder, 7 million first-time voters will have to rely on…google maps… Waze… a compass… stargazers… wind vanes… crystal balls… tea leaves…
(they’ll probably ask their mom… but we want our students to be independent 🙂 )
(This blog site is not endorsing any presidential candidate at this time…)
Breaking News: Gina Lopez of ABS-CBN Foundation endorses Duterte for President in Karen Davila’s show this morning, video here, below:
To be fair and accurate about it: the topic of the show this morning was mining, and the guest is a known environmentalist who also opposes mining in an island ecosystem such as the Philippines as it poisons our water systems. Karen Davila being the broadcast journalist that she is, segued to the presidential candidates — so that’s how the interview progressed.
Before posting this, i made a quick internet search for verification, and true enough, she (Gina Lopez) had a speaking engagement three days ago, and when asked about the presidential elections, she gave an answer to this effect, and it was posted in FB by a member of the audience and it became a fever, este, er, viral. Less than an hour after Karen’s interview, it was already in YouTube, here it is: