Obama leads by 00.7% at 47.7% to 47% Obama.

  said i would update, right? — i saved the state-by-state   huffingtonpost survey on file; it was a bit heavy in favor of Obama (as you know, one of the huff executive editors  endorsed Obama in a column a few days ago).  and waited for a more widespread survey. They updated it by combining… 570 surveys.

     Here it is: Obama leads razor-thin, skin-of-the-teeth;  the race is “to the wire, to the limits, to the wall”, neck-and-neck  (want a song? more idioms and cliches?).

    That is to say: in the latest, he leads by 00.7% at 47.7% to 47% Obama, data from 570 polls. (note however that this is a survey of the “popular vote”, not the electoral college/ electoral vote. The actual election outcome is determined by “electoral college”; “winner takes all”, the candidate who wins in one state, even if by a slim margin, takes all the electoral votes in that state, not just what he won;  with a minimum of 270 electoral votes required to win. The surveys below reflect opinion spread all over the country, it is obviously not by electoral vote/ electoral college.) 

Here it is, rightclicked from huffingtonpost.com, data gathered from 570 polls (not just their own), at various times this weekend, last week, and a few weeks ago; some pollsters update every three days or so, each survey at each time counted separately:

2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama

The latest opinion polls using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model Estimate

  • Barack Obama 47.7%
  • Mitt Romney 47.0%
  • Undecided
  • Other

Currently tracking 570 polls

Updated 4 minutes ago

Latest Polls

Pollster Dates Pop. Obama Romney Undecided Margin
PPP (D-Americans United for Change)NEW! 11/1 – 11/3 1,200 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web)NEW! 10/30 – 11/3 4,920 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
UPI/CVOTERNEW! 11/2 – 11/2 1,074 LV 49 48 – Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/31 – 11/2 1,500 LV 48 48 2 –
ABC/PostNEW! 10/30 – 11/2 1,809 LV 48 48 2 –
Purple Strategies 10/31 – 11/1 1,000 LV 47 46 7 Obama +1
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/30 – 11/1 1,030 LV 48 46 6 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/26 – 11/1 1,094 LV 48 48 – –
Washington Times/JZ AnalyticsNEW! 10/29 – 10/31 800 LV 49 49 – –
Rasmussen 10/28 – 10/30 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
FOX 10/28 – 10/30 1,128 LV 46 46 6 –
High Point University 10/22 – 10/30 805 RV 46 43 11 Obama +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 – 10/29 1,073 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
YouGov/Economist 10/27 – 10/29 688 LV 48 47 1 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/26 – 10/29 1,271 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/25 – 10/29 806 LV 48 47 2 Obama +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/26 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 49 3 Romney +1
ARG 10/25 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
CBS/Times 10/25 – 10/28 563 LV 48 47 3 Obama +1
United Technologies/National Journal 10/25 – 10/28 713 LV 50 45 – Obama +5
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/25 – 10/28 1,400 LV 49 49 3 –
Pew 10/24 – 10/28 1,495 LV 47 47 6 –
Gallup 10/22 – 10/28 2,700 LV 46 51 – Romney +5
Rasmussen 10/25 – 10/27 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
IBD/TIPP 10/22 – 10/27 942 LV 45 44 7 Obama +1
NPR 10/23 – 10/25 1,000 LV 47 48 5 Romney +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/23 – 10/25 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/22 – 10/25 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/22 – 10/25 1,382 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/19 – 10/25 1,203 LV 48 48 – –
Rasmussen 10/22 – 10/24 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/20 – 10/24 1,222 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
AP-GfK 10/19 – 10/23 839 LV 45 47 8 Romney +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/20 – 10/22 1,200 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/20 – 10/22 803 LV 48 46 2 Obama +2
Rasmussen 10/19 – 10/21 1,500 LV 47 49 2 Romney +2
ARG 10/18 – 10/21 1,200 LV 47 49 3 Romney +2
Democracy Corps (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,000 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
Monmouth 10/18 – 10/21 1,402 LV 45 48 5 Romney +3
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,300 LV 48 48 4 –
ABC/Post 10/18 – 10/21 1,376 LV 49 48 1 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/16 – 10/21 885 LV 47 43 7 Obama +4
Gallup 10/15 – 10/21 2,700 LV 45 51 – Romney +6
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/18 – 10/20 800 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
NBC/WSJ 10/17 – 10/20 816 LV 47 47 4 –
CBS 10/17 – 10/20 790 LV 48 46 5 Obama +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/17 – 10/19 1,200 LV 49 47 4 Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/15 – 10/19 1,289 LV 46 43 9 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/18 – 10/18 805 LV 44 46 10 Romney +2
Rasmussen 10/16 – 10/18 1,500 LV 48 48 – –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/14 – 10/18 1,000 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/11 – 10/18 1,254 LV 46 48 – Romney +2
UConn/Hartford Courant 10/11 – 10/16 1,023 LV 48 45 6 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/13 – 10/15 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/13 – 10/15 826 LV 47 46 3 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/10 – 10/15 931 LV 47 46 5 Obama +1
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/12 – 10/14 1,600 LV 46 50 4 Romney +4
ARG 10/11 – 10/14 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/10 – 10/14 1,793 LV 46 45 7 Obama +1
Gallup 10/8 – 10/14 2,700 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/12 – 10/13 863 LV 47 44 9 Obama +3
ABC/Post 10/10 – 10/13 923 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/10 – 10/12 1,500 LV 48 49 – Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 – 10/11 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Monmouth 10/8 – 10/10 1,360 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/4 – 10/10 1,110 LV 46 49 – Romney +3
Rasmussen 10/7 – 10/9 1,500 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
FOX 10/7 – 10/9 1,092 LV 45 46 7 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/5 – 10/9 1,157 LV 45 45 7 –
IBD/TIPP 10/4 – 10/9 757 LV 44 49 7 Romney +5
YouGov/Economist 10/6 – 10/8 763 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
ARG 10/5 – 10/8 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/5 – 10/7 800 LV 45 45 10 –
Pew 10/4 – 10/7 1,112 LV 45 49 6 Romney +4
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/4 – 10/7 1,300 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
Gallup 10/1 – 10/7 3,050 RV 50 45 – Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/4 – 10/6 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
Clarus 10/4 – 10/4 590 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – 10/4 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/1 – 10/3 1,500 LV 49 47 – Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/29 – 10/3 1,071 LV 47 41 9 Obama +6
Clarus 10/2 – 10/2 590 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
McLaughlin (R-American Conservative Union) 9/30 – 10/2 1,000 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
YouGov/Economist 9/29 – 10/1 785 LV 49 44 2 Obama +5
CNN 9/28 – 9/30 783 LV 50 47 4 Obama +3
Rasmussen 9/28 – 9/30 1,500 LV 48 45 – Obama +3
ARG 9/27 – 9/30 1,200 LV 49 46 5 Obama +3
United Technologies/National Journal 9/27 – 9/30 789 LV 47 47 – –
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 9/27 – 9/30 1,100 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
NBC/WSJ 9/26 – 9/30 832 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
NPR 9/26 – 9/30 800 LV 51 44 3 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 9/25 – 9/30 1,912 LV 49 45 4 Obama +4
Gallup 9/24 – 9/30 3,050 RV 49 45 – Obama +4
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 9/27 – 9/29 800 LV 50 41 9 Obama +9
ABC/Post 9/26 – 9/29 813 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 9/23 – 9/29 855 LV 49 46 – Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/24 – 9/28 855 LV 47 42 8 Obama +5
Rasmussen 9/25 – 9/27 1,500 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
Merriman 9/24 – 9/27 981 RV 46 43 8 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/24 – 9/27 1,000 LV 49 47 – Obama +2
Pollster Dates Pop. Obama Romney Undecided Margin
PPP (D-Americans United for Change)NEW! 11/1 – 11/3 1,200 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web)NEW! 10/30 – 11/3 4,920 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
UPI/CVOTERNEW! 11/2 – 11/2 1,074 LV 49 48 – Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/31 – 11/2 1,500 LV 48 48 2 –
ABC/PostNEW! 10/30 – 11/2 1,809 LV 48 48 2 –
Purple Strategies 10/31 – 11/1 1,000 LV 47 46 7 Obama +1
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/30 – 11/1 1,030 LV 48 46 6 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/26 – 11/1 1,094 LV 48 48 – –
Washington Times/JZ AnalyticsNEW! 10/29 – 10/31 800 LV 49 49 – –
Rasmussen 10/28 – 10/30 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
FOX 10/28 – 10/30 1,128 LV 46 46 6 –
High Point University 10/22 – 10/30 805 RV 46 43 11 Obama +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 – 10/29 1,073 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
YouGov/Economist 10/27 – 10/29 688 LV 48 47 1 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/26 – 10/29 1,271 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/25 – 10/29 806 LV 48 47 2 Obama +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/26 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 49 3 Romney +1
ARG 10/25 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
CBS/Times 10/25 – 10/28 563 LV 48 47 3 Obama +1
United Technologies/National Journal 10/25 – 10/28 713 LV 50 45 – Obama +5
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/25 – 10/28 1,400 LV 49 49 3 –
Pew 10/24 – 10/28 1,495 LV 47 47 6 –
Gallup 10/22 – 10/28 2,700 LV 46 51 – Romney +5
Rasmussen 10/25 – 10/27 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
IBD/TIPP 10/22 – 10/27 942 LV 45 44 7 Obama +1
NPR 10/23 – 10/25 1,000 LV 47 48 5 Romney +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/23 – 10/25 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/22 – 10/25 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/22 – 10/25 1,382 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/19 – 10/25 1,203 LV 48 48 – –
Rasmussen 10/22 – 10/24 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/20 – 10/24 1,222 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
AP-GfK 10/19 – 10/23 839 LV 45 47 8 Romney +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/20 – 10/22 1,200 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/20 – 10/22 803 LV 48 46 2 Obama +2
Rasmussen 10/19 – 10/21 1,500 LV 47 49 2 Romney +2
ARG 10/18 – 10/21 1,200 LV 47 49 3 Romney +2
Democracy Corps (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,000 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
Monmouth 10/18 – 10/21 1,402 LV 45 48 5 Romney +3
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,300 LV 48 48 4 –
ABC/Post 10/18 – 10/21 1,376 LV 49 48 1 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/16 – 10/21 885 LV 47 43 7 Obama +4
Gallup 10/15 – 10/21 2,700 LV 45 51 – Romney +6
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/18 – 10/20 800 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
NBC/WSJ 10/17 – 10/20 816 LV 47 47 4 –
CBS 10/17 – 10/20 790 LV 48 46 5 Obama +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/17 – 10/19 1,200 LV 49 47 4 Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/15 – 10/19 1,289 LV 46 43 9 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/18 – 10/18 805 LV 44 46 10 Romney +2
Rasmussen 10/16 – 10/18 1,500 LV 48 48 – –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/14 – 10/18 1,000 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/11 – 10/18 1,254 LV 46 48 – Romney +2
UConn/Hartford Courant 10/11 – 10/16 1,023 LV 48 45 6 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/13 – 10/15 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/13 – 10/15 826 LV 47 46 3 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/10 – 10/15 931 LV 47 46 5 Obama +1
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/12 – 10/14 1,600 LV 46 50 4 Romney +4
ARG 10/11 – 10/14 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/10 – 10/14 1,793 LV 46 45 7 Obama +1
Gallup 10/8 – 10/14 2,700 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/12 – 10/13 863 LV 47 44 9 Obama +3
ABC/Post 10/10 – 10/13 923 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/10 – 10/12 1,500 LV 48 49 – Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 – 10/11 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Monmouth 10/8 – 10/10 1,360 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/4 – 10/10 1,110 LV 46 49 – Romney +3
Rasmussen 10/7 – 10/9 1,500 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
FOX 10/7 – 10/9 1,092 LV 45 46 7 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/5 – 10/9 1,157 LV 45 45 7 –
IBD/TIPP 10/4 – 10/9 757 LV 44 49 7 Romney +5
YouGov/Economist 10/6 – 10/8 763 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
ARG 10/5 – 10/8 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/5 – 10/7 800 LV 45 45 10 –
Pew 10/4 – 10/7 1,112 LV 45 49 6 Romney +4
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/4 – 10/7 1,300 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
Gallup 10/1 – 10/7 3,050 RV 50 45 – Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/4 – 10/6 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
Clarus 10/4 – 10/4 590 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – 10/4 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/1 – 10/3 1,500 LV 49 47 – Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/29 – 10/3 1,071 LV 47 41 9 Obama +6
Clarus 10/2 – 10/2 590 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
McLaughlin (R-American Conservative Union) 9/30 – 10/2 1,000 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
YouGov/Economist 9/29 – 10/1 785 LV 49 44 2 Obama +5
CNN 9/28 – 9/30 783 LV 50 47 4 Obama +3
Rasmussen 9/28 – 9/30 1,500 LV 48 45 – Obama +3
ARG 9/27 – 9/30 1,200 LV 49 46 5 Obama +3
United Technologies/National Journal 9/27 – 9/30 789 LV 47 47 – –
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 9/27 – 9/30 1,100 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
NBC/WSJ 9/26 – 9/30 832 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
NPR 9/26 – 9/30 800 LV 51 44 3 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 9/25 – 9/30 1,912 LV 49 45 4 Obama +4
Gallup 9/24 – 9/30 3,050 RV 49 45 – Obama +4
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 9/27 – 9/29 800 LV 50 41 9 Obama +9
ABC/Post 9/26 – 9/29 813 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 9/23 – 9/29 855 LV 49 46 – Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/24 – 9/28 855 LV 47 42 8 Obama +5
Rasmussen 9/25 – 9/27 1,500 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
Merriman 9/24 – 9/27 981 RV 46 43 8 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/24 – 9/27 1,000 LV 49 47 – Obama +2

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