Prof. Ana Maria Tabunda PhD, University of the Philippines statistics professors, former dean of the University of the Philippines School of Statistics and Pulse Asia Research Director, in an interview with DZMM yesterday, pointed out that in the most recent Pulse Asia survey, Poe and Binay are statistically tied (Poe at 27% and Binay at 21%). She explained further that in a survey such as this one, with a margin of error of +3/-3, for an advantage or lead to be considered statistically significant, it should be more than 6%.
That can be taken further as you go down the so-called ranking made by the news media of the most recent Pulse Asia survey. Because of the margin of error of +3 /-3, for the survey results of Poe 27%, Binay 21%, Roxas 18%, Duterte 15%, reporting the Pulse Asia survey result using a ranking of 1-2-3-4 is not as close to reality than reporting it as: a statistical tie between Poe and Binay, and a three-way statistical tie among Binay, Roxas, Duterte.
So, the “ranking”, after factoring in the margin of error is:
For 1-2: Poe, Binay in no particular order (statistical tie)
For 3-5: Binay, Roxas, Duterte in no particular order (3-way statistical tie)
i know that many people want to see a definitive ranking rather than statistical ties — but there it is: there isa margin of error estimated for the number of respondents at 1,200. Ok, if you’re really more comfortable with a definitive ranking, here it is: Poe tops Roxas and Duterte; statistically tied with Binay. Happy 🙂 ?
See previous post. After we pointed out that the vice presidential survey asked for only one name from the respondents, yet the purported “presidential” survey asked for three names –After the unexplained disparity and inconsistency was pointed out here (see previous post)… one of the parties affected must have moved a muscle and SWS finally released info on the real presidential survey (where respondents were asked whom they would vote for president if elections were held today). It showed a statistical tie.
The other day’s purported “presidential” survey result day was highly favorable to one party. Quite strangely, most of the leading news portals copied from one copy and used the same words as part of their headline to say that one party purportedly had overtaken another party: see for yourself (or ask my students — this was part of our exam today on the topic “Reporting Surveys”) — the phenomenon the other day where the leading news portals used the same headline or the same words for part of the headline, and the same lead or part of a lead. It was really strange, the last time that happened notoriously was during martial law when the crony press copied from one copy from the dictator’s press office.
Nagkopyahan.
In the University, when writing assignments are given out on the same topic or the same event, students turn in work differently worded from each another, of course — no two students turn in exactly the same title or the same first ten words in their first paragraph.
Nung isang araw… nagkopyahan ang mga dyaryo (the other day, the news portals copied from each other, or copied from one and the same copy).
Dyah’ll see wots-gowin-owwnn (ahm usin’ mah feyk suthern eccent eggen) (do y’all see wat’s goin on, i’m usin my fake southern accent again, tee-hee 🙂 )
