Since the reporting of surveys is a subject of the media monitor of the class, I have to stop elaborating on it 🙂 here to avoid spoonfeeding the students. Just the numbers: Here’s the gist of the latest Pulse Asia survey: 2,400 respondents with a margin of error of +2/-2 :
Poe 26%,
Roxas 20%, Binay 19%, Duterte 16%,
other candidates at one-digit figures follow. The “headline” of this post, Poe leads, the boys slug it out for #2, takes into account the margin of error resulting in statistical ties. (the headline is also crafted for a tabloid 🙂 tee-hee) But just to let you know – in yesterday’s and today’s reporting of the latest Pulse Asia presidential survey, the news portals at least did not copy from each other or did not copy from the same press release or news copy (unlike the reporting of the SWS “Pick 3” survey where the leading news portals had the same headlines and lead paragraphs, verbatim). At least this time, hindi sila nagkopyahan. And now, the fairest and the foolish awards: The ABS-CBN TV evening news report on the latest Pulse Asia survey hews closest to the numbers, reporting that Poe leads while the three are in a statistical tie for second place, followed by an interview of Pulse Asia Chief Research Director Prof. Ana Maria Tabunda, Phd, on the context. The GMA7 News TV (9am) report this morning also hews closest to the numbers without any unusual stress on any candidate. Some leading news portals emphasized the “gains” made by Roxas, and crafted the headline and story so he shares “headline” billing and lead billing with Grace Poe. Ok, I’ll stop here, I’m spoonfeeding the students 🙂
Prof. Ana Maria Tabunda PhD, University of the Philippines statistics professors, former dean of the University of the Philippines School of Statistics and Pulse Asia Research Director, in an interview with DZMM yesterday, pointed out that in the most recent Pulse Asia survey, Poe and Binay are statistically tied (Poe at 27% and Binay at 21%). She explained further that in a survey such as this one, with a margin of error of +3/-3, for an advantage or lead to be considered statistically significant, it should be more than 6%.
That can be taken further as you go down the so-called ranking made by the news media of the most recent Pulse Asia survey. Because of the margin of error of +3 /-3, for the survey results of Poe 27%, Binay 21%, Roxas 18%, Duterte 15%, reporting the Pulse Asia survey result using a ranking of 1-2-3-4 is not as close to reality than reporting it as: a statistical tie between Poe and Binay, and a three-way statistical tie among Binay, Roxas, Duterte.
So, the “ranking”, after factoring in the margin of error is:
For 1-2: Poe, Binay in no particular order (statistical tie)
For 3-5: Binay, Roxas, Duterte in no particular order (3-way statistical tie)
i know that many people want to see a definitive ranking rather than statistical ties — but there it is: there isa margin of error estimated for the number of respondents at 1,200. Ok, if you’re really more comfortable with a definitive ranking, here it is: Poe tops Roxas and Duterte; statistically tied with Binay. Happy 🙂 ?
