Obama leads by 00.7% at 47.7% to 47% Obama.
said i would update, right? — i saved the state-by-state huffingtonpost survey on file; it was a bit heavy in favor of Obama (as you know, one of the huff executive editors endorsed Obama in a column a few days ago). and waited for a more widespread survey. They updated it by combining… 570 surveys.
Here it is: Obama leads razor-thin, skin-of-the-teeth; the race is “to the wire, to the limits, to the wall”, neck-and-neck (want a song? more idioms and cliches?).
That is to say: in the latest, he leads by 00.7% at 47.7% to 47% Obama, data from 570 polls. (note however that this is a survey of the “popular vote”, not the electoral college/ electoral vote. The actual election outcome is determined by “electoral college”; “winner takes all”, the candidate who wins in one state, even if by a slim margin, takes all the electoral votes in that state, not just what he won; with a minimum of 270 electoral votes required to win. The surveys below reflect opinion spread all over the country, it is obviously not by electoral vote/ electoral college.)
Here it is, rightclicked from huffingtonpost.com, data gathered from 570 polls (not just their own), at various times this weekend, last week, and a few weeks ago; some pollsters update every three days or so, each survey at each time counted separately:
2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama
The latest opinion polls using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.
HuffPost Model Estimate
- Barack Obama 47.7%
- Mitt Romney 47.0%
- Undecided
- Other
Currently tracking 570 polls
Updated 4 minutes ago
Latest Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Pop. | Obama | Romney | Undecided | Margin | |
| PPP (D-Americans United for Change)NEW! | 11/1 – 11/3 | 1,200 LV | 50 | 47 | 3 | Obama +3 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web)NEW! | 10/30 – 11/3 | 4,920 LV | 47 | 46 | 4 | Obama +1 | |
| UPI/CVOTERNEW! | 11/2 – 11/2 | 1,074 LV | 49 | 48 | – | Obama +1 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/31 – 11/2 | 1,500 LV | 48 | 48 | 2 | – | |
| ABC/PostNEW! | 10/30 – 11/2 | 1,809 LV | 48 | 48 | 2 | – | |
| Purple Strategies | 10/31 – 11/1 | 1,000 LV | 47 | 46 | 7 | Obama +1 | |
| JZ Analytics/Newsmax | 10/30 – 11/1 | 1,030 LV | 48 | 46 | 6 | Obama +2 | |
| UPI/CVOTER | 10/26 – 11/1 | 1,094 LV | 48 | 48 | – | – | |
| Washington Times/JZ AnalyticsNEW! | 10/29 – 10/31 | 800 LV | 49 | 49 | – | – | |
| Rasmussen | 10/28 – 10/30 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 49 | – | Romney +2 | |
| FOX | 10/28 – 10/30 | 1,128 LV | 46 | 46 | 6 | – | |
| High Point University | 10/22 – 10/30 | 805 RV | 46 | 43 | 11 | Obama +3 | |
| JZ Analytics/Newsmax | 10/27 – 10/29 | 1,073 LV | 46 | 47 | 7 | Romney +1 | |
| YouGov/Economist | 10/27 – 10/29 | 688 LV | 48 | 47 | 1 | Obama +1 | |
| ABC/Post | 10/26 – 10/29 | 1,271 LV | 48 | 49 | 1 | Romney +1 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 10/25 – 10/29 | 806 LV | 48 | 47 | 2 | Obama +1 | |
| PPP (D-Americans United for Change) | 10/26 – 10/28 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 49 | 3 | Romney +1 | |
| ARG | 10/25 – 10/28 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 48 | 3 | – | |
| CBS/Times | 10/25 – 10/28 | 563 LV | 48 | 47 | 3 | Obama +1 | |
| United Technologies/National Journal | 10/25 – 10/28 | 713 LV | 50 | 45 | – | Obama +5 | |
| DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) | 10/25 – 10/28 | 1,400 LV | 49 | 49 | 3 | – | |
| Pew | 10/24 – 10/28 | 1,495 LV | 47 | 47 | 6 | – | |
| Gallup | 10/22 – 10/28 | 2,700 LV | 46 | 51 | – | Romney +5 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/25 – 10/27 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 50 | – | Romney +3 | |
| IBD/TIPP | 10/22 – 10/27 | 942 LV | 45 | 44 | 7 | Obama +1 | |
| NPR | 10/23 – 10/25 | 1,000 LV | 47 | 48 | 5 | Romney +1 | |
| PPP (D-Americans United for Change) | 10/23 – 10/25 | 1,200 LV | 48 | 48 | 3 | – | |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/22 – 10/25 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 48 | 3 | Obama +1 | |
| ABC/Post | 10/22 – 10/25 | 1,382 LV | 48 | 49 | 1 | Romney +1 | |
| UPI/CVOTER | 10/19 – 10/25 | 1,203 LV | 48 | 48 | – | – | |
| Rasmussen | 10/22 – 10/24 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 50 | – | Romney +3 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 10/20 – 10/24 | 1,222 LV | 46 | 47 | 5 | Romney +1 | |
| AP-GfK | 10/19 – 10/23 | 839 LV | 45 | 47 | 8 | Romney +2 | |
| PPP (D-Americans United for Change) | 10/20 – 10/22 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 49 | 4 | Romney +2 | |
| YouGov/Economist | 10/20 – 10/22 | 803 LV | 48 | 46 | 2 | Obama +2 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/19 – 10/21 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 49 | 2 | Romney +2 | |
| ARG | 10/18 – 10/21 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 49 | 3 | Romney +2 | |
| Democracy Corps (D) | 10/18 – 10/21 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 46 | 3 | Obama +3 | |
| Monmouth | 10/18 – 10/21 | 1,402 LV | 45 | 48 | 5 | Romney +3 | |
| DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) | 10/18 – 10/21 | 1,300 LV | 48 | 48 | 4 | – | |
| ABC/Post | 10/18 – 10/21 | 1,376 LV | 49 | 48 | 1 | Obama +1 | |
| IBD/TIPP | 10/16 – 10/21 | 885 LV | 47 | 43 | 7 | Obama +4 | |
| Gallup | 10/15 – 10/21 | 2,700 LV | 45 | 51 | – | Romney +6 | |
| Washington Times/JZ Analytics | 10/18 – 10/20 | 800 LV | 50 | 47 | 3 | Obama +3 | |
| NBC/WSJ | 10/17 – 10/20 | 816 LV | 47 | 47 | 4 | – | |
| CBS | 10/17 – 10/20 | 790 LV | 48 | 46 | 5 | Obama +2 | |
| PPP (D-Americans United for Change) | 10/17 – 10/19 | 1,200 LV | 49 | 47 | 4 | Obama +2 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 10/15 – 10/19 | 1,289 LV | 46 | 43 | 9 | Obama +3 | |
| Gravis Marketing | 10/18 – 10/18 | 805 LV | 44 | 46 | 10 | Romney +2 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/16 – 10/18 | 1,500 LV | 48 | 48 | – | – | |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/14 – 10/18 | 1,000 LV | 47 | 49 | 4 | Romney +2 | |
| UPI/CVOTER | 10/11 – 10/18 | 1,254 LV | 46 | 48 | – | Romney +2 | |
| UConn/Hartford Courant | 10/11 – 10/16 | 1,023 LV | 48 | 45 | 6 | Obama +3 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/13 – 10/15 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 49 | – | Romney +2 | |
| YouGov/Economist | 10/13 – 10/15 | 826 LV | 47 | 46 | 3 | Obama +1 | |
| IBD/TIPP | 10/10 – 10/15 | 931 LV | 47 | 46 | 5 | Obama +1 | |
| DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) | 10/12 – 10/14 | 1,600 LV | 46 | 50 | 4 | Romney +4 | |
| ARG | 10/11 – 10/14 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 | 4 | Romney +1 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 10/10 – 10/14 | 1,793 LV | 46 | 45 | 7 | Obama +1 | |
| Gallup | 10/8 – 10/14 | 2,700 LV | 47 | 49 | – | Romney +2 | |
| JZ Analytics/Newsmax | 10/12 – 10/13 | 863 LV | 47 | 44 | 9 | Obama +3 | |
| ABC/Post | 10/10 – 10/13 | 923 LV | 49 | 46 | 2 | Obama +3 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/10 – 10/12 | 1,500 LV | 48 | 49 | – | Romney +1 | |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/7 – 10/11 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 48 | 3 | Obama +1 | |
| Monmouth | 10/8 – 10/10 | 1,360 LV | 46 | 47 | 5 | Romney +1 | |
| UPI/CVOTER | 10/4 – 10/10 | 1,110 LV | 46 | 49 | – | Romney +3 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/7 – 10/9 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 48 | 4 | Romney +1 | |
| FOX | 10/7 – 10/9 | 1,092 LV | 45 | 46 | 7 | Romney +1 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 10/5 – 10/9 | 1,157 LV | 45 | 45 | 7 | – | |
| IBD/TIPP | 10/4 – 10/9 | 757 LV | 44 | 49 | 7 | Romney +5 | |
| YouGov/Economist | 10/6 – 10/8 | 763 LV | 49 | 46 | 2 | Obama +3 | |
| ARG | 10/5 – 10/8 | 1,200 LV | 47 | 48 | 4 | Romney +1 | |
| Washington Times/JZ Analytics | 10/5 – 10/7 | 800 LV | 45 | 45 | 10 | – | |
| Pew | 10/4 – 10/7 | 1,112 LV | 45 | 49 | 6 | Romney +4 | |
| DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) | 10/4 – 10/7 | 1,300 LV | 47 | 49 | 4 | Romney +2 | |
| Gallup | 10/1 – 10/7 | 3,050 RV | 50 | 45 | – | Obama +5 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/4 – 10/6 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 49 | – | Romney +2 | |
| Clarus | 10/4 – 10/4 | 590 LV | 46 | 47 | 7 | Romney +1 | |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 10/1 – 10/4 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 48 | 3 | Obama +1 | |
| Rasmussen | 10/1 – 10/3 | 1,500 LV | 49 | 47 | – | Obama +2 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 9/29 – 10/3 | 1,071 LV | 47 | 41 | 9 | Obama +6 | |
| Clarus | 10/2 – 10/2 | 590 LV | 49 | 45 | 6 | Obama +4 | |
| McLaughlin (R-American Conservative Union) | 9/30 – 10/2 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 45 | 6 | Obama +4 | |
| YouGov/Economist | 9/29 – 10/1 | 785 LV | 49 | 44 | 2 | Obama +5 | |
| CNN | 9/28 – 9/30 | 783 LV | 50 | 47 | 4 | Obama +3 | |
| Rasmussen | 9/28 – 9/30 | 1,500 LV | 48 | 45 | – | Obama +3 | |
| ARG | 9/27 – 9/30 | 1,200 LV | 49 | 46 | 5 | Obama +3 | |
| United Technologies/National Journal | 9/27 – 9/30 | 789 LV | 47 | 47 | – | – | |
| DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) | 9/27 – 9/30 | 1,100 LV | 49 | 45 | 6 | Obama +4 | |
| NBC/WSJ | 9/26 – 9/30 | 832 LV | 49 | 46 | 3 | Obama +3 | |
| NPR | 9/26 – 9/30 | 800 LV | 51 | 44 | 3 | Obama +7 | |
| Quinnipiac | 9/25 – 9/30 | 1,912 LV | 49 | 45 | 4 | Obama +4 | |
| Gallup | 9/24 – 9/30 | 3,050 RV | 49 | 45 | – | Obama +4 | |
| Washington Times/JZ Analytics | 9/27 – 9/29 | 800 LV | 50 | 41 | 9 | Obama +9 | |
| ABC/Post | 9/26 – 9/29 | 813 LV | 49 | 47 | 3 | Obama +2 | |
| UPI/CVOTER | 9/23 – 9/29 | 855 LV | 49 | 46 | – | Obama +3 | |
| Ipsos/Reuters (Web) | 9/24 – 9/28 | 855 LV | 47 | 42 | 8 | Obama +5 | |
| Rasmussen | 9/25 – 9/27 | 1,500 LV | 47 | 46 | 4 | Obama +1 | |
| Merriman | 9/24 – 9/27 | 981 RV | 46 | 43 | 8 | Obama +3 | |
| Politico/GWU/Battleground | 9/24 – 9/27 | 1,000 LV | 49 | 47 | – | Obama +2 |
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