A tv news program reported an SWS survey by saying that Noli de Castro was still the top choice for President and gave the figures as follows: Noli : 29%; Manny Villar: 28%; Loren: 26% .
Not that i like any of the presidentiables, i don’t; i’d vote for Chief Justice Puno even if he isn’t/ wouldn’t be a candidate: but one of the most important feature to mention in reporting surveys is the margin of error. I checked the SWS site and the margin of error for this particular survey is plus or minus 2 .5% for national percentages (bigger for regions: plus or minus 6% for Metro Manila, Mindanao, Visayas, and plus or minus 4% for “Balance Luzon”).
That means that figures within plus or minus 2.5%, or a range of 5%, are statistical ties.
That means the three are statistical ties (not that i like any of them). For that matter, figures from 24% to 29% are statistical ties (24% plus a 2.5% margin of error or a maximum of 26.5%; and 29% minus 2.5% margin of error or a minimum of 26.5% are statistical ties).
(the tv news program changed the headline to Noli, Manny, Loren top picks; as i was writing this. Anyway.) Update: the evening news (ANC) reverted to the news headline and “story”: “Noli de Castro leads the survey, etc.” without mentioning any margin of error at all, while the free tv version (TV Patrol Channel 2) also ran the same story: “Nangunguna si Kabayan Noli sa survey, etc.” also without mentioning any margin of error at all. All these are forms of propaganda and bandwagonning in favor of Noli de Castro in the guise of news stories. The required reading for corruption in the media is “News for Sale” volumes 1 and 2 by Chay Florentino-Hofileña for PCIJ, which investigated and documented how media organizations sold news airtime and space to politicians to promote them.
In the 2004 elections, the government-owned or government- controlled tabloids then always bannered that GMA was leading the pack according to surveys when, on those rare occasions, she was ahead by only 1%; they also never reported when FPJ led the surveys. Those banner headlines and news stories are grossly misleading (as stated, figures within a 5% range are usually statistical ties) and intentionally misleading. They’re classic examples of surveys as propaganda, or the reporting of surveys as propaganda (i know, i know, i promised last year to summarize the studies on the reporting of surveys, they’re in the back issues of the Philippine Journalism Review, which are cited in my syllabus, etc. etc., i never got around to it, if you’re a reporter or if you’re reporting on surveys you have a duty to look them up yourself).
The other important features that should be mentioned in reporting surveys, of course, are: who sponsored/ financed the survey, the method, the time frame, sample size, etc., etc., they’re all in those studies i mentioned in reporting surveys.
I have to run along now i will edit this and put a picture later; as it is, it already took 45 minutes from me!
Here’s the SWS media release on this particular survey, from www.sws.org.ph
Quote “7 November 2008. Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey:
Quote “Noli De Castro, Manny Villar, and Loren Legarda
are people’s top recommendees for 2010
Quote “Social Weather Stations
Quote “Vice-President Noli De Castro, Senate President Manny Villar, and Senator Loren Legarda are the top recommended successors to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010, according to the Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey, fielded over September 24-27, 2008.
Quote “To the survey question, “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 10, 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.” [Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names], 29% named Vice-President De Castro, 28% named Senate President Villar, and 26% named Sen. Legarda.
Quote “No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents.
Quote “They were followed by Sen. Panfilo Lacson (17%), Sen. Francis Escudero (16%), former President Joseph Estrada (13%), and Sen. Mar Roxas (13%).
Quote “The survey found 1% mentioning Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, Sen. Francis Pangilinan, Sen. Mirriam Defesor-Santiago, Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Cong. Jose De Venecia, Sen. Jamby Madrigal, and Sen. Pia Cayetano.
Quote “Nine percent could not give an answer, and 9% had no one to recommend.
Quote “Compared to the previous quarter, those with an increase in mentions were: Senate President Villar, by 3 points, Sen. Escudero, by 2 points, former President Estrada, by 2 points, and Sen. Lacson, by 1 point. The question wording has been exactly the same in the past five quarterly surveys shown in Table 1.
Quote “The mentions of Vice-President De Castro’s name went down by 2 points, while the mentions of Sen. Legarda and Sen. Roxas were steady.
Quote “Survey Background
Quote “The Third Quarter of 2008 Social Weather Survey was conducted over September 24-27, 2008 using face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±2.5% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, Visayas and Mindanao, and ±4% for Balance Luzon). The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2008 to obtain the national estimates.
Quote “The survey item on the recommended leaders to succeed Pres. Arroyo is not commissioned, but is done on SWS’s own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld. #” Closed-quote.
