Grigory Gagarin. Battle of Akhatle between Russians and Circassians on May 8, 1841. 1841-1842. Oil on canvas. The Russian Museum, St. Petersburg, Russia. Right-clicked from http://www.abcgallery.com
While the modus operandi, the signature of the bomb, and manner of delivery, showed that the Batasan bomb blast was likely perpetrated, (when i use “likely” i mean statistical probability), by an armed group with military training that disregards civilian casualties and (see blog post of November 14) and knows the rudiments of propaganda, or by an armed group copycatting the modus operandi of another armed group; and that , it was aimed at the institution itself, the police authorities took the less likely theory, statistically speaking, of political assassination of Wahab Akbar being the objective of the bombing . We take their word for it because they have access to the evidence. If that theory is based on the evidence at hand, it should prevail over statistics and studies.
But that evidence was largely testimonial, likely inadequately counselled or made involuntarily, and now, recanted. In the meantime, the names of politician-suspects have been trotted in the media based on largely inadmissible evidence (see my blog post of November 20).
Now, those pieces of evidence are gone (except for the “testimony” of the former driver of one rival-politician) because of the recantation of the Malate raid witness (a former Basilan town mayor) and the Payatas raid witnesses. Where does that leave the police authorities and the CIDG?
They have the forensic evidence of Wahab Akbar and four others succumbing with the former being the most “colorful”; that’s one; of Wahab Akbar and four others sustaining the most number of wounds with the former being the most “colorful”; and the “trajectory” of the bomb shrapnel based on where it was attached, that’s two
“Colorfulness” is not evidence; as basis for a theory of the case it is also founded on statistical probability. So the police is left with “trajectory” of the bomb shrapnel. And for that, we try to take their word for it. That bomb blasts can be made to have a trajectory dedicated to one person.
The police advanced the theory that it was perpetrated by the Abu Sayyaf moonlighting as political assassins (it was their sideline, according to the police), and in this instance, moonlighting for a mastermind who was/ is a rival-politician of Akbar. That fits the armed-group-with –military-training theory, as well as the political assassination theory; the difference is the objective.
The House as target causes much discomfort: it means one of the armed groups have brought the war to the city; or a copycat has the capability to make it appear that way for the purpose of retaliation or internal propaganda.
The political assassination theory makes us sleep soundly at night: it means only the “colorful” are targets and unsafe.
We try to take the word of the police for it because we want to be able to sleep soundly at night.
