Tag: Swing state

News, The News Media, The President, tweets

(Updated). Realtime: all the updates on the US polls, Obama vs. Romney, minute-to-minute

(overreported but only 48 hours left to go!)

        In the interest of balance, fairness, truth, accuracy, impartiality, “objectivity”, clarity, completeness,  correctness, timeliness — and all the qualities of news — here are all the updates realtime on the U.S. presidential race:

                                                       Ok. Calm down.

“Networks Give Obama, Romney Disproportionate Airtime As Election Nears

“AP  |  Posted: 11/05/2012 12:39 pm EST

“NEW YORK (AP) — Television news networks are showing some of the final stump speeches for the presidential candidates, but what you see depends on where you look.

“The liberal group Media Matters for America said Monday that the left-leaning MSNBC aired 79 minutes of speechifying by President Obama from Thursday through late Sunday afternoon, compared with 44 minutes of Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

“There was a larger disparity on Fox News Channel, which is popular with conservatives. During the same period, Fox aired 27 minutes of the Democratic incumbent and 168 minutes of Romney making his case.

“Media Matters says CNN aired 66 minutes of Obama and 53 minutes of Romney.”

xxx

“Early Voting Chaos Ensues In Swing States

from huffingtonpost.com:   “MIAMI — The battle over ballot access continued across the country Monday, as Republican Party operatives and elected officials pressed forward with apparent attempts to suppress the vote ahead of Election Day.

“Chaos reigned in South Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott has refused to extend a reduced early voting period despite lines lasting as long as eight or nine hours, and an emergency lawsuit from state Democrats. His GOP predecessors Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist both extended early voting hours by executive order, and on Sunday Crist called Scott’s refusal to follow suit “indefensible” and “unconscionable.” “

xxx

“Nine swing states will decide final results

The Irish Times – Tuesday, November 6, 2012.   “xxx Both campaigns agree that 36 states are not competitive. Some 22 will vote for Republican Mitt Romney, while 14 will plump for President Barack Obama. However the states where the president is popular are more populous. When tallied with electoral college votes attached to each state, Obama is in a stronger position.

“Battleground states

“These states alone with give Obama 197 votes and Romney 169. Both, then, are short of the 270 votes needed to capture the White House. No ballots have been counted yet, but several states offer information about party affiliation of the voters casting early ballots.

“This data indicates that Democrats lead in four of the five battleground states, while Republicans appears to be ahead in one.

“Experts have cautioned against reading too much into these findings, as final results may differ significantly.

“Latest polling data indicates that President Obama carries a significant – but slim – edge over former Massachusetts governor Romney

xxx

“Why the 2012 election is the closest in recent history

By Scott Bomboy | National Constitution Center – 2 hrs 38 mins ago.   “As Election Day approaches, a review of polling data going back to 1936 shows the race between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is the closest in 76 years.

xxx

“Two final tracking polls split between Obama and Romney

by Liz Goodwin, Yahoo! News | The Ticket – 3 hrs ago.  “Two final tracking polls from Gallup and the Washington Post/ABC News were released Monday, with the former showing Mitt Romney up 1 point among likely voters and the latter favoring President Obama by 3 points

xxx

“Early voting results favor Obama, but popular vote remains uncertain

“By Brendan James | The Ticket – 4 hrs ago. Thirty million votes are already cast for the next president of the Unites States, and the turnout so far favors President Barack Obama over GOP challenger Mitt Romney.

xxx

“After 2 years and $2 billion, it’s time to choose

“(CBS News) Two years. $2 billion. Now it’s your turn. The long and expensive presidential campaign is down to its last hours. National polls show the race dead even, but in the few swing states that will tip the balance, the president has a slight advantage over Mitt Romney.

xxx

“Do or die: Final campaign day dawns

“Updated: 2012-11-06 08:19. By Tangi Quemener in Madison, Wisconsin ( China Daily).  “Both candidates frantically court undecided voters.

“After a grueling 18-month battle, the final US campaign day arrived on Monday for President Barack Obama and rival Mitt Romney, two men on a course for the US top job….”

xxx

Gera

“Pag nanalo republicans, may gera uli (war of  aggression), maiipit na naman tayo…”  by marichulambino.

xxx

News, The News Media, The President

U.S. polls Obama vs. Romney: “to the wire, to the limits, to the wall”: data, 570 polls: Obama leads by 0.7% at 47.7% to 47%

 Obama leads by 00.7% at 47.7% to 47% Obama.

  said i would update, right? — i saved the state-by-state   huffingtonpost survey on file; it was a bit heavy in favor of Obama (as you know, one of the huff executive editors  endorsed Obama in a column a few days ago).  and waited for a more widespread survey. They updated it by combining… 570 surveys.

     Here it is: Obama leads razor-thin, skin-of-the-teeth;  the race is “to the wire, to the limits, to the wall”, neck-and-neck  (want a song? more idioms and cliches?).

    That is to say: in the latest, he leads by 00.7% at 47.7% to 47% Obama, data from 570 polls. (note however that this is a survey of the “popular vote”, not the electoral college/ electoral vote. The actual election outcome is determined by “electoral college”; “winner takes all”, the candidate who wins in one state, even if by a slim margin, takes all the electoral votes in that state, not just what he won;  with a minimum of 270 electoral votes required to win. The surveys below reflect opinion spread all over the country, it is obviously not by electoral vote/ electoral college.) 

Here it is, rightclicked from huffingtonpost.com, data gathered from 570 polls (not just their own), at various times this weekend, last week, and a few weeks ago; some pollsters update every three days or so, each survey at each time counted separately:

2012 General Election: Romney vs. Obama

The latest opinion polls using a poll-tracking model and is updated whenever a new poll is released.

HuffPost Model Estimate

  • Barack Obama 47.7%
  • Mitt Romney 47.0%
  • Undecided
  • Other

Currently tracking 570 polls

Updated 4 minutes ago

Latest Polls

Pollster Dates Pop. Obama Romney Undecided Margin
PPP (D-Americans United for Change)NEW! 11/1 – 11/3 1,200 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web)NEW! 10/30 – 11/3 4,920 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
UPI/CVOTERNEW! 11/2 – 11/2 1,074 LV 49 48 – Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/31 – 11/2 1,500 LV 48 48 2 –
ABC/PostNEW! 10/30 – 11/2 1,809 LV 48 48 2 –
Purple Strategies 10/31 – 11/1 1,000 LV 47 46 7 Obama +1
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/30 – 11/1 1,030 LV 48 46 6 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/26 – 11/1 1,094 LV 48 48 – –
Washington Times/JZ AnalyticsNEW! 10/29 – 10/31 800 LV 49 49 – –
Rasmussen 10/28 – 10/30 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
FOX 10/28 – 10/30 1,128 LV 46 46 6 –
High Point University 10/22 – 10/30 805 RV 46 43 11 Obama +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 – 10/29 1,073 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
YouGov/Economist 10/27 – 10/29 688 LV 48 47 1 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/26 – 10/29 1,271 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/25 – 10/29 806 LV 48 47 2 Obama +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/26 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 49 3 Romney +1
ARG 10/25 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
CBS/Times 10/25 – 10/28 563 LV 48 47 3 Obama +1
United Technologies/National Journal 10/25 – 10/28 713 LV 50 45 – Obama +5
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/25 – 10/28 1,400 LV 49 49 3 –
Pew 10/24 – 10/28 1,495 LV 47 47 6 –
Gallup 10/22 – 10/28 2,700 LV 46 51 – Romney +5
Rasmussen 10/25 – 10/27 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
IBD/TIPP 10/22 – 10/27 942 LV 45 44 7 Obama +1
NPR 10/23 – 10/25 1,000 LV 47 48 5 Romney +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/23 – 10/25 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/22 – 10/25 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/22 – 10/25 1,382 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/19 – 10/25 1,203 LV 48 48 – –
Rasmussen 10/22 – 10/24 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/20 – 10/24 1,222 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
AP-GfK 10/19 – 10/23 839 LV 45 47 8 Romney +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/20 – 10/22 1,200 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/20 – 10/22 803 LV 48 46 2 Obama +2
Rasmussen 10/19 – 10/21 1,500 LV 47 49 2 Romney +2
ARG 10/18 – 10/21 1,200 LV 47 49 3 Romney +2
Democracy Corps (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,000 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
Monmouth 10/18 – 10/21 1,402 LV 45 48 5 Romney +3
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,300 LV 48 48 4 –
ABC/Post 10/18 – 10/21 1,376 LV 49 48 1 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/16 – 10/21 885 LV 47 43 7 Obama +4
Gallup 10/15 – 10/21 2,700 LV 45 51 – Romney +6
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/18 – 10/20 800 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
NBC/WSJ 10/17 – 10/20 816 LV 47 47 4 –
CBS 10/17 – 10/20 790 LV 48 46 5 Obama +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/17 – 10/19 1,200 LV 49 47 4 Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/15 – 10/19 1,289 LV 46 43 9 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/18 – 10/18 805 LV 44 46 10 Romney +2
Rasmussen 10/16 – 10/18 1,500 LV 48 48 – –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/14 – 10/18 1,000 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/11 – 10/18 1,254 LV 46 48 – Romney +2
UConn/Hartford Courant 10/11 – 10/16 1,023 LV 48 45 6 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/13 – 10/15 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/13 – 10/15 826 LV 47 46 3 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/10 – 10/15 931 LV 47 46 5 Obama +1
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/12 – 10/14 1,600 LV 46 50 4 Romney +4
ARG 10/11 – 10/14 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/10 – 10/14 1,793 LV 46 45 7 Obama +1
Gallup 10/8 – 10/14 2,700 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/12 – 10/13 863 LV 47 44 9 Obama +3
ABC/Post 10/10 – 10/13 923 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/10 – 10/12 1,500 LV 48 49 – Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 – 10/11 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Monmouth 10/8 – 10/10 1,360 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/4 – 10/10 1,110 LV 46 49 – Romney +3
Rasmussen 10/7 – 10/9 1,500 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
FOX 10/7 – 10/9 1,092 LV 45 46 7 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/5 – 10/9 1,157 LV 45 45 7 –
IBD/TIPP 10/4 – 10/9 757 LV 44 49 7 Romney +5
YouGov/Economist 10/6 – 10/8 763 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
ARG 10/5 – 10/8 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/5 – 10/7 800 LV 45 45 10 –
Pew 10/4 – 10/7 1,112 LV 45 49 6 Romney +4
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/4 – 10/7 1,300 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
Gallup 10/1 – 10/7 3,050 RV 50 45 – Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/4 – 10/6 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
Clarus 10/4 – 10/4 590 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – 10/4 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/1 – 10/3 1,500 LV 49 47 – Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/29 – 10/3 1,071 LV 47 41 9 Obama +6
Clarus 10/2 – 10/2 590 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
McLaughlin (R-American Conservative Union) 9/30 – 10/2 1,000 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
YouGov/Economist 9/29 – 10/1 785 LV 49 44 2 Obama +5
CNN 9/28 – 9/30 783 LV 50 47 4 Obama +3
Rasmussen 9/28 – 9/30 1,500 LV 48 45 – Obama +3
ARG 9/27 – 9/30 1,200 LV 49 46 5 Obama +3
United Technologies/National Journal 9/27 – 9/30 789 LV 47 47 – –
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 9/27 – 9/30 1,100 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
NBC/WSJ 9/26 – 9/30 832 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
NPR 9/26 – 9/30 800 LV 51 44 3 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 9/25 – 9/30 1,912 LV 49 45 4 Obama +4
Gallup 9/24 – 9/30 3,050 RV 49 45 – Obama +4
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 9/27 – 9/29 800 LV 50 41 9 Obama +9
ABC/Post 9/26 – 9/29 813 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 9/23 – 9/29 855 LV 49 46 – Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/24 – 9/28 855 LV 47 42 8 Obama +5
Rasmussen 9/25 – 9/27 1,500 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
Merriman 9/24 – 9/27 981 RV 46 43 8 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/24 – 9/27 1,000 LV 49 47 – Obama +2
Pollster Dates Pop. Obama Romney Undecided Margin
PPP (D-Americans United for Change)NEW! 11/1 – 11/3 1,200 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web)NEW! 10/30 – 11/3 4,920 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
UPI/CVOTERNEW! 11/2 – 11/2 1,074 LV 49 48 – Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/31 – 11/2 1,500 LV 48 48 2 –
ABC/PostNEW! 10/30 – 11/2 1,809 LV 48 48 2 –
Purple Strategies 10/31 – 11/1 1,000 LV 47 46 7 Obama +1
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/30 – 11/1 1,030 LV 48 46 6 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/26 – 11/1 1,094 LV 48 48 – –
Washington Times/JZ AnalyticsNEW! 10/29 – 10/31 800 LV 49 49 – –
Rasmussen 10/28 – 10/30 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
FOX 10/28 – 10/30 1,128 LV 46 46 6 –
High Point University 10/22 – 10/30 805 RV 46 43 11 Obama +3
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/27 – 10/29 1,073 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
YouGov/Economist 10/27 – 10/29 688 LV 48 47 1 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/26 – 10/29 1,271 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/25 – 10/29 806 LV 48 47 2 Obama +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/26 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 49 3 Romney +1
ARG 10/25 – 10/28 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
CBS/Times 10/25 – 10/28 563 LV 48 47 3 Obama +1
United Technologies/National Journal 10/25 – 10/28 713 LV 50 45 – Obama +5
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/25 – 10/28 1,400 LV 49 49 3 –
Pew 10/24 – 10/28 1,495 LV 47 47 6 –
Gallup 10/22 – 10/28 2,700 LV 46 51 – Romney +5
Rasmussen 10/25 – 10/27 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
IBD/TIPP 10/22 – 10/27 942 LV 45 44 7 Obama +1
NPR 10/23 – 10/25 1,000 LV 47 48 5 Romney +1
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/23 – 10/25 1,200 LV 48 48 3 –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/22 – 10/25 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
ABC/Post 10/22 – 10/25 1,382 LV 48 49 1 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/19 – 10/25 1,203 LV 48 48 – –
Rasmussen 10/22 – 10/24 1,500 LV 47 50 – Romney +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/20 – 10/24 1,222 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
AP-GfK 10/19 – 10/23 839 LV 45 47 8 Romney +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/20 – 10/22 1,200 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/20 – 10/22 803 LV 48 46 2 Obama +2
Rasmussen 10/19 – 10/21 1,500 LV 47 49 2 Romney +2
ARG 10/18 – 10/21 1,200 LV 47 49 3 Romney +2
Democracy Corps (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,000 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
Monmouth 10/18 – 10/21 1,402 LV 45 48 5 Romney +3
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/18 – 10/21 1,300 LV 48 48 4 –
ABC/Post 10/18 – 10/21 1,376 LV 49 48 1 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/16 – 10/21 885 LV 47 43 7 Obama +4
Gallup 10/15 – 10/21 2,700 LV 45 51 – Romney +6
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/18 – 10/20 800 LV 50 47 3 Obama +3
NBC/WSJ 10/17 – 10/20 816 LV 47 47 4 –
CBS 10/17 – 10/20 790 LV 48 46 5 Obama +2
PPP (D-Americans United for Change) 10/17 – 10/19 1,200 LV 49 47 4 Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/15 – 10/19 1,289 LV 46 43 9 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/18 – 10/18 805 LV 44 46 10 Romney +2
Rasmussen 10/16 – 10/18 1,500 LV 48 48 – –
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/14 – 10/18 1,000 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
UPI/CVOTER 10/11 – 10/18 1,254 LV 46 48 – Romney +2
UConn/Hartford Courant 10/11 – 10/16 1,023 LV 48 45 6 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/13 – 10/15 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
YouGov/Economist 10/13 – 10/15 826 LV 47 46 3 Obama +1
IBD/TIPP 10/10 – 10/15 931 LV 47 46 5 Obama +1
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/12 – 10/14 1,600 LV 46 50 4 Romney +4
ARG 10/11 – 10/14 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/10 – 10/14 1,793 LV 46 45 7 Obama +1
Gallup 10/8 – 10/14 2,700 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
JZ Analytics/Newsmax 10/12 – 10/13 863 LV 47 44 9 Obama +3
ABC/Post 10/10 – 10/13 923 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
Rasmussen 10/10 – 10/12 1,500 LV 48 49 – Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 – 10/11 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Monmouth 10/8 – 10/10 1,360 LV 46 47 5 Romney +1
UPI/CVOTER 10/4 – 10/10 1,110 LV 46 49 – Romney +3
Rasmussen 10/7 – 10/9 1,500 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
FOX 10/7 – 10/9 1,092 LV 45 46 7 Romney +1
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 10/5 – 10/9 1,157 LV 45 45 7 –
IBD/TIPP 10/4 – 10/9 757 LV 44 49 7 Romney +5
YouGov/Economist 10/6 – 10/8 763 LV 49 46 2 Obama +3
ARG 10/5 – 10/8 1,200 LV 47 48 4 Romney +1
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 10/5 – 10/7 800 LV 45 45 10 –
Pew 10/4 – 10/7 1,112 LV 45 49 6 Romney +4
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 10/4 – 10/7 1,300 LV 47 49 4 Romney +2
Gallup 10/1 – 10/7 3,050 RV 50 45 – Obama +5
Rasmussen 10/4 – 10/6 1,500 LV 47 49 – Romney +2
Clarus 10/4 – 10/4 590 LV 46 47 7 Romney +1
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/1 – 10/4 1,000 LV 49 48 3 Obama +1
Rasmussen 10/1 – 10/3 1,500 LV 49 47 – Obama +2
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/29 – 10/3 1,071 LV 47 41 9 Obama +6
Clarus 10/2 – 10/2 590 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
McLaughlin (R-American Conservative Union) 9/30 – 10/2 1,000 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
YouGov/Economist 9/29 – 10/1 785 LV 49 44 2 Obama +5
CNN 9/28 – 9/30 783 LV 50 47 4 Obama +3
Rasmussen 9/28 – 9/30 1,500 LV 48 45 – Obama +3
ARG 9/27 – 9/30 1,200 LV 49 46 5 Obama +3
United Technologies/National Journal 9/27 – 9/30 789 LV 47 47 – –
DailyKos/SEIU/PPP (D) 9/27 – 9/30 1,100 LV 49 45 6 Obama +4
NBC/WSJ 9/26 – 9/30 832 LV 49 46 3 Obama +3
NPR 9/26 – 9/30 800 LV 51 44 3 Obama +7
Quinnipiac 9/25 – 9/30 1,912 LV 49 45 4 Obama +4
Gallup 9/24 – 9/30 3,050 RV 49 45 – Obama +4
Washington Times/JZ Analytics 9/27 – 9/29 800 LV 50 41 9 Obama +9
ABC/Post 9/26 – 9/29 813 LV 49 47 3 Obama +2
UPI/CVOTER 9/23 – 9/29 855 LV 49 46 – Obama +3
Ipsos/Reuters (Web) 9/24 – 9/28 855 LV 47 42 8 Obama +5
Rasmussen 9/25 – 9/27 1,500 LV 47 46 4 Obama +1
Merriman 9/24 – 9/27 981 RV 46 43 8 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 9/24 – 9/27 1,000 LV 49 47 – Obama +2

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