My notes on d video of alleged signing of Comelec bid docs on P11.3 billion poll automation inside a Comelec toilet


Photo right-clicked from the Comelec website used here for non-commercial purposes

Photo right-clicked from the Comelec website used here for non-commercial purposes

 

         My notes on the video of the 11.2- billion-peso poll automation bidder allegedly being assisted by the Comelec bid chair in signing bid documents inside a Comelec toilet last May 6 during a recess in the bidding process: I embedded the video below without endorsing it and, since i do not know the source, without giving it any kind of credence, and shown here only for purposes of ease of explanation.

This is a 27-second video stretched (repeated or looped) to three minutes to give running time to certain factual allegations and conclusions shown as crawlers or chargen (computer-generated text, or simply running captions).

The factual allegations and conclusions seem to be two sets:

1) the first, by the uploader, alleging that one of the persons in the video is Comelec special bidding chair Atty. Rafanan; and

2) the second, by what seems to be the original producer of the video being quoted by the uploader, alleging that Comelec special bid chair Atty. Rafanan gave F.F. Cruz Co. time, or three hours, to look for their missing documents during the bidding process and that Comelec bid chair Atty. Rafanan waited for said bidder to comply, and to provide these documents, and that the video shows the bidder, F.F. Cruz, completing and signing those bid documents inside a Comelec toilet.



This video has not been authenticated, the scene or scenario has not been authenticated, Atty. Rafanan has denied; only the location, the Comelec restroom, was confirmed by Comelec Chair Jose Melo in an interview today, but he said that the person was not Atty. Rafanan.

The following need to be established, and are not established by the video alone: 1) identities of all the parties in the video; 2) what documents are being signed; 3) date; and 4) context: why were those persons signing the documents inside the toilet.

Without more, or by itself, what this video tells/ shows me are: 1)there are three individuals inside a Comelec toilet , holding carefully, sheaves of papers stapled together; 2)one of the individuals, a grey-haired man in barong, is initialling or signing every page of the documents; 3) he is being assisted by a man in blue shirt who has the same hair style as Comelec bid chair Atty. Rafanan, but persons who know him say it is not him. This person glances sideways so you have a one-second view of his face. You can slow-mo it then freeze frame, then light it up and sharpen it to see the face clearly. 3)They seem to be in a hurry. 4) They’re in such a hurry that they choose the nearest private place, which was the Comelec rest room. 5)Two of them are glancing sideways to check no one is looking. That’s it. It needs more. In any case, the second set of factual allegations is easily verifiable by the records: 1) Is it true that Comelec bid chair Atty. Rafanan gave F.F. Cruz Co. three hours to look for missing bid documents? 2) If there were other bidders who had the same deficiency, were they given the same treatment? 3) If those in the video were F.F. Cruz and staff members complying with said requirement, that establishes the context of the video; but was there preferential treatment; or undue influence; or switching of bid documents; or bribery; or falsification? 4)there would be an anomaly if Atty. Rafanan had given preferential treatment to F.F. Cruz and did not give the same kind of opportunity to bidders with deficiencies; or if there were falsification of records; or if there were switching of documents; etc. By the way, under the Rules on Electronic Evidence of the Rules of Court, streaming video and video tapes are admissible as evidence of the content of the video if the person who took the video could be presented as witness to authenticate the video.

(Updated) When the reporting of surveys becomes propaganda (Dear Tangé; Tangé is my term of endearment for friends)

             A tv news program  reported  an SWS survey by saying that Noli de Castro was still the top choice for President and gave the figures as follows: Noli : 29%; Manny Villar: 28%; Loren: 26% .

Photo by David.R.Stoecklein.Tail-End.  Right-clicked from www.allposters.com, used here for non- commercial  purposes, under the terms of , free service by blog-use of image provided by said site.
Photo by David.R.Stoecklein.Tail-End. Right-clicked from http://www.allposters.com, used here for non- commercial purposes, under the terms of , free service by blog-use of image provided by said site.

   

 

 

     Not that i like any of the presidentiables, i don’t; i’d vote for Chief Justice Puno even if he isn’t/ wouldn’t be a candidate: but one of the most  important feature to mention in reporting surveys is the margin of error. I checked the SWS site and the margin of error for this particular survey is  plus or minus 2 .5% for national percentages (bigger for regions: plus or minus 6% for Metro Manila, Mindanao, Visayas, and plus or minus 4% for “Balance Luzon”).

        That means that figures within plus or minus 2.5%, or a range of 5%, are statistical ties.

       That means the three are statistical ties (not that i like any of them). For that matter, figures from 24% to 29% are statistical ties (24% plus  a 2.5% margin of error or  a maximum of 26.5%;  and 29% minus 2.5% margin of error or a minimum of 26.5% are statistical ties).

     (the tv news program changed the headline to Noli, Manny, Loren top picks; as i was writing this. Anyway.) Update: the evening news (ANC) reverted to the news headline and “story”: “Noli de Castro leads the survey, etc.” without mentioning any margin of error at all, while the free tv version (TV Patrol Channel 2) also ran the same story: “Nangunguna si Kabayan Noli sa survey, etc.”  also without mentioning any margin of error at all.  All these are forms of propaganda and bandwagonning in favor of Noli de Castro in the guise of news stories. The required reading for corruption in the media is “News for Sale” volumes 1 and 2 by Chay Florentino-Hofileña for PCIJ, which investigated and documented how media organizations sold news airtime and space to politicians to promote them.

      In the 2004 elections, the government-owned or government- controlled tabloids then  always bannered that GMA was leading the pack according to surveys when, on those rare occasions, she was ahead by only 1%; they also never reported  when FPJ led the surveys. Those banner headlines and news  stories are grossly misleading (as stated, figures within a 5% range are usually statistical ties) and intentionally misleading. They’re classic examples of surveys as propaganda, or the reporting of surveys as propaganda (i know,  i know, i promised last year to summarize the studies on the reporting of surveys, they’re in the back issues of the Philippine Journalism Review, which are cited in my syllabus, etc. etc., i never got around to it, if you’re a reporter or if you’re reporting on surveys you have a duty to  look them up yourself).

      The other important features that should be mentioned in reporting surveys, of course, are: who sponsored/ financed the survey, the method, the time frame, sample size, etc., etc., they’re all in those studies i mentioned in reporting surveys.  

       I have to run along now i will edit this and put a picture later; as it is, it already  took 45 minutes from me!

       Here’s the SWS media release on this particular survey, from www.sws.org.ph

     Quote “7 November 2008. Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey:

      Quote “Noli De Castro, Manny Villar, and Loren Legarda

are people’s top recommendees for 2010

     Quote “Social Weather Stations

      Quote “Vice-President Noli De Castro, Senate President Manny Villar, and Senator Loren Legarda are the top recommended successors to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2010, according to the Third Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey, fielded over September 24-27, 2008.

        Quote “To the survey question, “Sa ilalim ng kasalukuyang Konstitusyon, ang termino ni Pang. Arroyo ay hanggang sa taong 2010 lamang at magkakaroon ng halalan para sa pagka-pangulo sa Mayo 10, 2010. Sinu-sino sa palagay ninyo ang mga magagaling na lider na dapat pumalit kay Pang. Arroyo bilang Presidente? Maaari po kayong magbanggit ng hanggang tatlong sagot.” [Under the present Constitution, the term of Pres. Arroyo is up to 2010 only, and there will be an election for a new President in May 2010. Who do you think are good leaders who should succeed Pres. Arroyo as President? You may give up to three names], 29% named Vice-President De Castro, 28% named Senate President Villar, and 26% named Sen. Legarda.

      Quote “No list of names was provided to prompt the respondents.

      Quote “They were followed by Sen. Panfilo Lacson (17%), Sen. Francis Escudero (16%), former President Joseph Estrada (13%), and Sen. Mar Roxas (13%).

      Quote “The survey found 1% mentioning Pres. Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, MMDA Chairman Bayani Fernando, Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV, Sen. Juan Ponce Enrile, Sen. Francis Pangilinan, Sen. Mirriam Defesor-Santiago, Sen. Richard Gordon, Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Cong. Jose De Venecia, Sen. Jamby Madrigal, and Sen. Pia Cayetano.

       Quote “Nine percent could not give an answer, and 9% had no one to recommend.

       Quote “Compared to the previous quarter, those with an increase in mentions were: Senate President Villar, by 3 points, Sen. Escudero, by 2 points, former President Estrada, by 2 points, and Sen. Lacson, by 1 point. The question wording has been exactly the same in the past five quarterly surveys shown in Table 1.

       Quote “The mentions of Vice-President De Castro’s name went down by 2 points, while the mentions of Sen. Legarda and Sen. Roxas were steady.

      Quote “Survey Background

      Quote “The Third Quarter of 2008 Social Weather Survey was conducted over September 24-27, 2008 using face-to-face interviews of 1,500 adults in Metro Manila, the Balance of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±2.5% for national percentages, ±6% for Metro Manila, Visayas and Mindanao, and ±4% for Balance Luzon). The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2008 to obtain the national estimates.

       Quote “The survey item on the recommended leaders to succeed Pres. Arroyo is not commissioned, but is done on SWS’s own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld. #” Closed-quote.