Tag: #Eleksyon2016

Election law & election campaigns, The President, tweets

#Halalan2016 #Eleksyon2016 No stat significant move: Dut 33% Mar 22% Grace 21% Binay 17%

     As they were.

     Status quo:

     All presidential bets held on to their ratings from last week as there is no statistically significant movement in the numbers compared to last week’s survey by Pulse Asia, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5%, as follows:

      Pulse Asia presidential survey commissioned by ABS-CBN Apr. 26-29,   4,000 respondents, margin of error of plus or minus 1.5% (source of figures: ABS-CBN News)

 Duterte 33% (exactly the same as last week’s ratings)

Mar 22% (from last week’s 20%, statistically insignificant movement)

Grace 21% (from last week’s 22%, statistically insignificant movement)

Binay 17% (from last week’s 18%, statistically insignificant movement)

Undecided : About 4% (with a range of 2.5% to 5.5%)

     In one week of full-blast propaganda blaring from all sides in all media, from the “anti-Duterte” practitioners and the Duterte defenders: The survey shows:  people are holding fast to… whatever it is they are holding fast.

    Ok, let me rephrase that: People are holding fast to whatever it is they believe in.

     Are the “Undecided” enough in numbers to turn the tide? Their numbers are 4% with a high of 5.5%. These numbers will fragment four directions, but even in the statistically improbable event that they bunch up in one candidate below, would that be enough?  — do the math.

    (Hindi nga enough, pag-isipan mo yan, hwag matagal mag-isip, 120 hours na lang). 

     In the previous post published the other day, here was the closing : “xxx (T)he swing, if any, with less than one week, will adjust only within its level of political consciousness. (barring massive cheating). ” 

     Actually,

i just want to recite my Yeats

Amid the ongoing noise and haste 

            The Second Coming

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity. 

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
xxx
                   – William Butler Yeats

 

Election law & election campaigns, music, The President

Dedicated to the millennials (Altho there is no millennial vote, no women’s vote, no men’s vote, etc. in the Philippines)

Dedicated to the millennials (unfairly being blamed or praised for the ratings of certain candidates, but here are the stats, see numbers and discussion below):

Based on Comelec data as of January 2016: Almost half of the 54.36 million registered voters in the country are below 35 years old, or the so-called millennials.

       That is, 24.73 million voters of the 54.36 million registered voters are aged 17 to 34 years old.

      Here is the breakdown:
3,043,411 voters are 17 to 19 years old
7,983,167 voters are 20-24 years old
7,370,037 voters are 25 to 29 years old
6,333,398 voters are 30 to 34 years old

    There is no study that indicates that there is a millennial vote or millennial block vote. Nada.

     There is no study that indicates that there is a women’s vote or women voting as a block. Wala. Wala po. It’s fragmented into the four leading candidates with (according to Pulse Asia in March, 2016): Grace Poe getting a small edge of about 2%-4% over the second-placer for women’s votes with the rest evenly divided. That means there is no women’s vote – they do not cluster dramatically around one candidate, but yes, she enjoys a slight edge, but that is still not a block vote.
      There is no study that indicates that there is a men’s vote or men voting as a block. It’s fragmented into the four leading candidates with (according to Pulse Asia in March 2016) Duterte getting a small edge of 2% to 4% over the second placer for men’s votes with the rest evenly divided, so that means they are not dramatically clustered, not a block vote.

     If you look at urban versus rural, one candidate tops the urban vote with a mere 2% over the second placer for urban voters while another candidate tops the rural vote with a mere 2% to 4 % over the second placer for the rural voters.

     The only block vote is the Iglesia ni Cristo and that was where the President was yesterday, but there is no study to indicate that they have made or unmade a presidential elections or determined its outcome.

    Perish the thought that between now and May 9 or a mere six days, there will be a millennial vote, or a women’s vote, or a men’s vote, or an urban vote, or a rural vote. There’s not enough time.

    Are there territorial votes such as a Visayan vote, a solid North, a Mindanao vote, or a Metro Manila vote? Traditionally, the territorial votes were categorized as “opposition country” and “administration votes”; but since after Garci (who delivered landslides 0-versus-100% “victory” and leads from big islands) and during the era of automated elections, apparently no single region or island has delivered landslides to one candidate.

      What to do now with six days remaining – since there is no millennial vote, no women’s vote, etc. ?

    Between now and May 9, a party has to exert all its efforts to sweeping strokes of propaganda that capture the imagination of the entire nation.

      That is: In the next remaining crucial six days, while it is true that you should consolidate your so-called voting blocks, the decisive swing in voters’ preferences will not be determined by the blocks — it will be determined by…. (drum roll please): The level of political consciousness of the electorate. (big words).  Eh ganuon talaga, iyun nga yung obvious na hindi nakikita ng mga so-called political analysts.

      Here’s one more: Based on the numbers, based on who were leading in the presidential surveys in the last one-and-a-half years, three-fourths of those were not choosing the administration daang matuwid candidate (sorry po, malapit na po ang eleksyon, ito po yung data.)

     Here’s one more. Ito ang pag-isipan nyo nang mabuti: 

     In the next six days, would you be able to change that? i.e., in a mere six days, would you be able to change one-and-a-half years’ trend or data? Pag-isipan mo nang mabuti, hwag ka masyadong matagal mag-isip.

    That (whether they would swing in favor of the admin candidate or not) would  also be determined by the level of political consciousness  and in the next six days, the swing, if any,  with less than one week, will adjust only within its level of political consciousness. (barring massive cheating).