Next-day post-debate “polls” on who “won” the debate: not scientific #PiliPinasDebates2016 #juanvote

     As expected, PR agencies of the candidates flood the news pages a day or two after the debate with press releases on who “won” the debate.
More insidious however are “polls” hosted by news organizations that purport to measure who “won” the debate by soliciting votes from their viewers or readers. This is called an open-access poll or a crowd-sourced poll. It is not scientific, and everybody knows that.
Well, maybe not everybody.
Many people still believe what they see or read in the news. And many more do not know that for the right price, a candidate can contract a PR agency to activate 10,000 unique isp numbers in his/her favor to vote in a non-scientific poll, and get away with it. He/she “won the debate”!
Would it be too much to ask the editors to at least put a small, teeny box beside their sidebar “poll” that states: “non-scientific poll”. Two words, one line. Or: “Not a scientific poll.” Four words (three words and an article). Or: “This is not a scientific poll.” Or: “not scientific”. Or: “non-scientific”. One word.  Would that be too much to ask?
Otherwise, post-debate “polls”, like the opinions of “political analysts” on who “won” the debate” are just pieces of propaganda materials to repair the shattered performances of their clients. 

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From Sheldon R. Gawiser, Ph.D. and G. Evans Witt of the National Council on Public Polls (U.S.):“The only polls that should be reported are “scientific” polls.xxx Unscientific pseudo-polls are widespread and sometimes entertaining, but they never provide the kind of information that belongs in a serious report. Examples include xxx call-in polls, man-on-the-street surveys, many Internet polls, shopping mall polls xxx
         “One major distinguishing difference between scientific and unscientific polls is who picks the respondents for the survey. In a scientific poll, the pollster identifies and seeks out the people to be interviewed. In an unscientific poll, the respondents usually “volunteer” their opinions, selecting themselves for the poll.
         “In scientific polls, the pollster uses a specific statistical method for picking respondents. In unscientific polls, the person picks himself to participate” (open access: open to everyone interested) xxx The method pollsters use to pick interviewees relies on the bedrock of mathematical reality: when the chance of selecting each person in the target population is known, then and only then do the results of the sample survey reflect the entire population. This is called a random sample or a probability sample. xxx” (at  http://www.ncpp.org/   )

The noisier citizens participate in a debate #PiliPinasDebates2016 the better for expanding electoral democratic space

     The noisier the citizenry participate in a debate, the better for expanding electoral democratic space.
        The more people post strong opinions on an on-going debate, the better for increasing electoral participation.
         The fierier the exchange of words during a debate is, the better for resolving electoral indecision.
       Hopefully, light follows fire and heat.
       We want more debates rather than less, the outrageous with the reasonable, the witty with the wafty, the perennial pikón with the persistent  pitík.
        The usual, trite criticism of electoral debates is that these lack substance, or they lack policy discussion. But lack of platform discussion, or even lack of differences in program of government, is inherent in traditional political parties — and it is the nature of elite electoral politics. (Big words).
        (Students of history know that the unwritten rule in traditional electoral democracy is that members of the elite alternate in power without changing the basic economic and political framework of government.)
        HOWEVER, every generation of enlightened citizenry is more intelligent than the previous one, the patronizing or pejorative “millennial” appellation notwithstanding.
        The more debates there are, the more revelations there would be of the character of the candidates, and the nature of the traditional political parties they represent.
        If you want the citizenry to spit out and reject the recalcitrant with the corrupt, the incompetent with the inane, the traditional political elite with their traditional billionaire padrinos, saturate them with debates — show the real lack of intelligent choices. These would expose the candidates and the real nature of their parties.
       Flood the citizenry with debates, and they will rise up and make the most intelligent choice for our generation.                                                    ♣  ♣  

Pls also see other WordPressers’ posts on the theme “Perspective” at: 

 
Perspective

#PiliPinasDebates2016 : (Updated) The candidates all showed up, yey! #juanvote

     For the first time in post-martial law history, all the presidential candidates showed up in a nationally televised debate! Yey!! woot-woot, whoo-hoo, awweesome, ♥  ♥  ♥ !
       Despite criticisms on the format, time limit, number of advertisements, exclusion of online news portals, the Comelec pulled off a first: That is, make all presidential bets show up.         For this, the Comelec should be congratulated. (i’ve criticized the Comelec during the past two months for the internal squabbling, the partisanship, and the massive disenfranchisement, but for the holding of the presidential debate, they deserve initial kudos.)
       In Philippine electoral politics, the rule had been: The “frontrunner”, or the perceived frontrunners, never showed up in a debate. This is based on the conventional wisdom (of post-martial law Philippine politicians anyway) that: If the frontrunner was leading by a mile, he/she should not give an inch to the laggards by exposing himself/herself in a debate.
(there were no real elections during martial law, that is, from 1972 to 1986).
      Thus, we never had any real presidential debates in recent memory till last night’s.
      Without detracting from the convincing power of the Comelec, one probable reason all five earnestly participated in the debate is the fact that: Among the three leading candidates there is no real frontrunner — the top three being in an interchanging “statistical tie” for the past two quarters. It’s anyone’s game, every digit counts. Based on the numbers, the top three are (in alphabetical order): Binay, Duterte, Poe; but LP asserts its candidate is also in a statistical tie so let’s just intersperse Roxas in the top three, to be fair.
   

Photo by David.R.Stoecklein.Tail-End. Right-clicked from www.allposters.com, used here for non- commercial purposes, under the terms of , free service by blog-use of image provided by said site.
Photo by David.R.Stoecklein.Tail-End. Right-clicked from http://www.allposters.com, used here for non- commercial purposes, under the terms of , free service by blog-use of image provided by said site.

  The conventional wisdom, too, is, a candidate who is at the bottom should be on the offensive, and aggressively take a dig at those on top to prevent plateauing. There is every reason to show up for those who need to claw up.
      Also, maybe it helps that all five are “well-educated”, formal-education-wise (universities not being the sole repository of wisdom), thus, all five probably have the necessary confidence to carry them through a public debate. Three are lawyers (U.P. Law though that is not necessarily a boon, the former dictator and his cohorts having been products of U.P. Law — but so were the brightest anti-dictatorship lawyers) while two acquired their college degrees in the best U.S. universities. But whether or not the debates would influence the Philippine electorate is still unknown. Still, even if Filipino voters were never known to pay much attention to debates, the statistically tied candidates need every inch, every forum, any platform.
      Who won the debate? Rappler has a “panel of judges” composed of their editors, and a group of netizens, who called every round, although their cards and numbers are not transparent, and the netizen polling not scientific. Anyway, here it is (note again, as stated, the empirical basis is not known to us):

Hellier.Gavin
Photo by Hellier Gavin right-clicked from allposters.com under terms of use of said site used here for non-commercial purposes

Rappler “Editors’ picks per round
PiliPinas 2016 Debate: Round 1 goes to Mar Roxas
PiliPinas 2016 Debate: Round 2 goes to Grace Poe
PiliPinas 2016 Debate: Round 3 goes to Grace Poe
Rappler “Netizens’ picks per round
On social media, Duterte wins Round 1 of the debate
Duterte takes Round 2, Roxas is runner-up for netizens
Consistents winner: Netizens say Duterte takes 3rd round of debate”
       In the U.S presidential debates, CNN and other news programs have a minute-by-minute empirical polling (with a stated margin of error) that shows real-time which candidate was leading in the public opinion polls for every minute that the debate was on-going, and the graph is shown real-time on tv. (This requires a LAN-device for every respondent and therefore logistically demanding; and more complicatedly: Comelec is not legally allowed to poll at this time.) 

     Hopefully, the Comelec has ushered in a new era thru this first ever well-attended presidential debate. For this: Comelec won this round. But the bar is set higher for the next debate, and Comelec should address the criticisms and concerns raised. Here are some of them: The inability to tackle issues substantially, and the prospect that there may be no fundamental difference in platforms, tells us that one cannot expect too much from the presidential contest in terms of achieving genuine change for the people.”– from Nato Reyes of Bayan. xxx The debate format did not allow the details of their action plan.” – from media curator Noemi Lardizabal-Dado xxx we need longer air time with no commercials. Also include a random questions from Netizens and audiences on venue.” –from netizen Rob Refuerzo
     Ok, here it is: the format followed a showbiz Boy Abunda style of questioning (with my compliments to Boy Abunda) by throwing at each candidate the most publicized criticism about him/her,  with 90 seconds to answer. This kind of format emphasized personalities rather than programs and and works well with Boy Abunda’s shows.

     In other words, the format did not draw up the most contentious issues of governance (such as, for example, the poverty-alleviation strategy of dole-outs or CCT/ 4Ps of the government (if the candidate is merely going to continue or improve upon the programs of PNoy’s Daang Matuwid, then he/she does not have any alternative development strategy and merely wants to alternate in power on the convenient, tired, over-used promise that he/she will do better because he/she is a superman/ Supergirl); that’s just one, i have a list here) and for failing to draw up the most contentious  issues of governance, it failed to compel the candidates to draw the line that separates one from the rest, or each from the others.