#Halalan2016 #PiliPinas2016 #Eleksyon2016 #juanvote Dut leads, Poe closes in, Mar stat tie for 2nd: error 1.8%: Dut 32, Poe 25, Mar 22, Binay 15, Apr27-May 1
Duterte keeps his lead, no movement, Grace closing in, Mar statistically tied for second place.
(exerted a lot of effort to write that lead with fairness and with consistency with the figures: The headline or lead that says “Duterte on top” or “Duterte posted a clear lead” may be generally correct but omits the slight movement in numbers of the second placers, who are closing in.)
The latest nationwide survey is by Laylo-Standard for the period Apr. 27-May 1, based on 3,000 respondents, with a general national margin of error at 1.8% (the published charts show the specific margin of error for each candidate).
The Laylo-Standard survey results coincide generally with the Pulse Asia survey results as follows: 1.Duterte maintained his numbers, no statistically significant movement; he kept his lead; 2.Grace and Mar are in a statistical tie for second place. 3. The general “ranking” is the same.
Being generally consistent with the Pulse Asia and SWS survey results makes it generally reliable.
The Laylo survey, however, which included the time frame of May 1 (after reports on the Duterte bank accounts started to explode) showed a very slight rise, even considering the margin of error, of 0.95% in the one-day difference in survey period, in the rating of Grace Poe and no movement in the one-day difference in survey period, in the rating of Mar Roxas.
(To be conservative, i included the margin of error in both directions in computing the movements: Apr. 30 with margin of error at 1.5% lowest of Grace at 22.5% and her May 1 with margin of error 1.55% lowest at 23.45%, there is a slight difference or rise of 0.95% for the one-day difference in survey period); the rest, considering the margin of error, did not statistically significantly move.
Or… To summarize: there was a very slight rise, 0.95%, in the rating of Grace for the one-day difference in survey period.
However, the low of Duterte (30.33% according to the Laylo chart itself) and the high of Grace (26.55% according to the Laylo chart itself) puts the latter within 3.78% gap.
(image rightclicked from The Standard, used here non-commercially for academic purposes)
Or… To summarize: Duterte kept lead, his numbers have not moved, the second placer closed in to a probable gap of 3.78% (May 1, Duterte-Grace) from a probable gap of 8% (Apr. 30, Duterte-Mar).
The undecided is generally at 4%.
(i hope this is fair enough, all three names are there and all figures and margins of error were considered in the computation).
Here are the figures according to the Laylo-Standard survey as published by The Standard, for 3,000 respondents for the period April 30-May 1.
Based on the reputability of the survey firm and the general consistency with the results of Pulse Asia and SWS, and covering a time frame closest to today, it should supersede the previous surveys:
Duterte 32%, error margin 1.67%, range: 30.33% to 33.67%
Grace 25%, error margin 1.55%, range: 23.45% to 26.55%
Mar 21.67%, error margin 1.48%, range: 20.52% to 23.48%
Binay 25.44%, error margin 1.28%, range: 13.72% to 16.28%