Tag: #PiliPinas

Election law & election campaigns, News, The News Media, The President, tweets

#Halalan2016 #PiliPinas2016 #Eleksyon2016 #juanvote Dut leads, Poe closes in, Mar stat tie for 2nd: error 1.8%: Dut 32, Poe 25, Mar 22, Binay 15, Apr27-May 1

#Halalan2016 #PiliPinas2016 #Eleksyon2016 #juanvote Dut leads, Poe closes in, Mar stat tie for 2nd: error 1.8%: Dut 32, Poe 25, Mar 22, Binay 15, Apr27-May 1

 Duterte keeps his lead, no movement, Grace closing in, Mar statistically tied for second place.

      (exerted a lot of effort to write that lead with fairness and with consistency with the figures: The headline or lead that says “Duterte on top” or “Duterte posted a clear lead” may be generally correct but omits the slight movement in numbers of the second placers, who are closing in.)
        The latest nationwide survey is by Laylo-Standard for the period Apr. 27-May 1, based on 3,000 respondents, with a general national margin of error at 1.8% (the published charts show the specific margin of error for each candidate).
        The Laylo-Standard survey results coincide generally with the Pulse Asia survey results as follows: 1.Duterte maintained his numbers, no statistically significant movement; he kept his lead; 2.Grace and Mar are in a statistical tie for second place. 3. The general “ranking” is the same.
       Being generally consistent with the Pulse Asia and SWS survey results makes it generally reliable.
       The Laylo survey, however, which included the time frame of May 1 (after reports on the Duterte bank accounts started to explode) showed a very slight rise, even considering the margin of error, of 0.95% in the one-day difference in survey period, in the rating of Grace Poe and no movement in the one-day difference in survey period, in the rating of Mar Roxas.

       (To be conservative, i included the margin of error in both directions in computing the movements: Apr. 30 with margin of error at 1.5% lowest of Grace at 22.5% and her May 1 with margin of error 1.55% lowest at 23.45%, there is a slight difference or rise of 0.95% for the one-day difference in survey period); the rest, considering the margin of error, did not statistically significantly move.

Laylo.Margin
         Or… To summarize: there was a very slight rise, 0.95%, in the rating of Grace for the one-day difference in survey period.
        However, the low of Duterte (30.33% according to the Laylo chart itself) and the high of Grace (26.55% according to the Laylo chart itself) puts the latter within 3.78% gap.

LayloSurvey
         (image rightclicked from The Standard, used here non-commercially for academic purposes)

      Or… To summarize: Duterte kept lead, his numbers have not moved, the second placer closed in to a probable gap of 3.78% (May 1, Duterte-Grace) from a probable gap of 8% (Apr. 30, Duterte-Mar).

        The undecided is generally at 4%.

        (i hope this is fair enough, all three names are there and all figures and margins of error were considered in the computation).
       Here are the figures according to the Laylo-Standard survey as published by The Standard, for 3,000 respondents for the period April 30-May 1.

     Based on the reputability of the survey firm and the general consistency with the results of Pulse Asia and SWS, and covering a time frame closest to today, it should supersede the previous surveys:

Duterte 32%, error margin 1.67%, range: 30.33% to 33.67% 

Grace 25%, error margin 1.55%, range: 23.45% to 26.55%

Mar 21.67%, error margin 1.48%, range: 20.52% to 23.48%

Binay 25.44%, error margin 1.28%, range: 13.72% to 16.28%

Election law & election campaigns, music, News, The News Media, The President

Newsman & famous speechwriter @teddyboylocsin gets drunk, renders “My Way” ahead of election results in 98 hours

    Newsman and speechwriter of at least three Philippine presidents Teddy Boy Locsin — apparently anticipating the results of  elections four days from now, drowned his sorrow in martini on worldwide  TV and rendered an editorial version of “My Way” in the ABS-CBN news program “The World Tonight”. (see video clip below) 

      His sudden career shift was apparently triggered by the most recent Pulse Asia survey results showing a probable Duterte win with a lead of 11 percentage points ahead of the closest rival 98 hours before election day. 

       Pulse Asia executive director Dean Ana Tabunda upon seeing the show said it was not their intent to upset Teddy Boy Locsin but it was simply their job to tabulate respondents answers. “If that had been the effect, we are sorry”. Asked to comment on the singing, she said: “Teddy Boy is a good speechwriter.” 

   Sought for an explanation about the lyrics as rewritten by him, the TV anchor was however whisked away by bouncers to avoid a brawl. The song “My Way” has been known to cause drunken bar room brawls in the Philippines. 

      Musician Ryan Cayabyab, when asked to review the performance, said “You know… he seemed to rush through the notes… he needs to render this with a proper 70-piece orchestra.”  

       Songwriter Paul Simon in his New York studio, by Skype, however said, “Truly, i felt his melancholy…”

       (video clip below, click the soundcloud pod in the upper lefthand corner to stop the piano and view the video below it  (the soundcloud pod piano music score is for his acapella version but he rushed thru the song out of unfathomable despondency)

when the video plays, there’s an ad that covers the graphics, click the upper righthand corner of the ad box to remove it and appreciate the agony of his lyrics

Election law & election campaigns, The President, tweets

#Halalan2016 #Eleksyon2016 No stat significant move: Dut 33% Mar 22% Grace 21% Binay 17%

     As they were.

     Status quo:

     All presidential bets held on to their ratings from last week as there is no statistically significant movement in the numbers compared to last week’s survey by Pulse Asia, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.5%, as follows:

      Pulse Asia presidential survey commissioned by ABS-CBN Apr. 26-29,   4,000 respondents, margin of error of plus or minus 1.5% (source of figures: ABS-CBN News)

 Duterte 33% (exactly the same as last week’s ratings)

Mar 22% (from last week’s 20%, statistically insignificant movement)

Grace 21% (from last week’s 22%, statistically insignificant movement)

Binay 17% (from last week’s 18%, statistically insignificant movement)

Undecided : About 4% (with a range of 2.5% to 5.5%)

     In one week of full-blast propaganda blaring from all sides in all media, from the “anti-Duterte” practitioners and the Duterte defenders: The survey shows:  people are holding fast to… whatever it is they are holding fast.

    Ok, let me rephrase that: People are holding fast to whatever it is they believe in.

     Are the “Undecided” enough in numbers to turn the tide? Their numbers are 4% with a high of 5.5%. These numbers will fragment four directions, but even in the statistically improbable event that they bunch up in one candidate below, would that be enough?  — do the math.

    (Hindi nga enough, pag-isipan mo yan, hwag matagal mag-isip, 120 hours na lang). 

     In the previous post published the other day, here was the closing : “xxx (T)he swing, if any, with less than one week, will adjust only within its level of political consciousness. (barring massive cheating). ” 

     Actually,

i just want to recite my Yeats

Amid the ongoing noise and haste 

            The Second Coming

Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity. 

Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
xxx
                   – William Butler Yeats